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Seinfeld



Joined: 15 Sep 2006
Posts: 14

Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:42 pm    Post subject: do aliens exist??  

Do they exist?

we r just one small planet in a absolutely ginormous universe with billions of stars and galaxies.
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Free Thinkr



Joined: 27 Jul 2004
Posts: 12876
Location: Northwest Indiana

Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:51 pm    Post subject:  

I suppose they do. Do intelligent aliens exist? I suppose they do. But then, these are merely suppositions; the likelihood of either I base mainly on the sheer size of our universe.
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Wizard From Oz



Joined: 18 Aug 2006
Posts: 11297
Location: Kansas

Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 6:20 pm    Post subject:  

Quote: I suppose they do. Do intelligent aliens exist? I suppose they do. But then, these are merely suppositions; the likelihood of either I base mainly on the sheer size of our universe

I hope there is intelligent life out there - cause there is bugger all on Earth
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cap'n queasy



Joined: 15 May 2004
Posts: 34968

Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 6:30 pm    Post subject:  

Free Thinkr wrote: I suppose they do. Do intelligent aliens exist? I suppose they do. But then, these are merely suppositions; the likelihood of either I base mainly on the sheer size of our universe.

Some might debate whether or not the size of the universe is relevant to the equation.

I think if there were advanced civilizations nearby we would have detected them by now.

Perhaps life (or even just intelligent life) is extremely rare or unique.

The empirical evidence suggests this might very well be the case.

Of course, we might just way be out in the boonies or something. If that is the case I think it is probably for the best. I see no reason to suppose alien life forms are really any different from the ones we know about on earth, and therefore potentially dangerous.
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Wizard From Oz



Joined: 18 Aug 2006
Posts: 11297
Location: Kansas

Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:44 pm    Post subject:  

I think if there were advanced civilizations nearby we would have detected them by now.

Fermis paradox

Perhaps life (or even just intelligent life) is extremely rare or unique.

The empirical evidence suggests this might very well be the case.

Some friends and I re-ran Drakes equation not that long ago. We came up with the potential for eight civilisation to exist in our galaxy at the moment.

Sounds pretty good till you consider the size of our galaxy. Each civilisation has the potential to be buried in an area of some 50,000 cubic light years.

Finding a needle in a haystack would be easy by comparrison
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NAB



Joined: 25 May 2006
Posts: 13621
Location: Where the stars at night, are big and bright

Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:46 pm    Post subject:  

MG1962 wrote: I think if there were advanced civilizations nearby we would have detected them by now.

Fermis paradox

Perhaps life (or even just intelligent life) is extremely rare or unique.

The empirical evidence suggests this might very well be the case.

Some friends and I re-ran Drakes equation not that long ago. We came up with the potential for eight civilisation to exist in our galaxy at the moment.

Sounds pretty good till you consider the size of our galaxy. Each civilisation has the potential to be buried in an area of some 50,000 cubic light years.

Finding a needle in a haystack would be easy by comparrison

Buzzkill. :lol:

Then how did they find us? Do their UFO's have better needle detecting equipment? :wink:
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The Comrade



Joined: 16 Jul 2006
Posts: 12039
Location: Zagreb

Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:50 pm    Post subject: Re: do aliens exist??  

Seinfeld wrote: Do they exist?

we r just one small planet in a absolutely ginormous universe with billions of stars and galaxies.

i hope you enjoyed your third(or fourth) stay here.


anyways, i do believe in. when you think of how infinite the universe is, and the recent discovery that there may be many more earth like plantes, i think it's safe to say there has to be some sort of intelligent life out there.
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cap'n queasy



Joined: 15 May 2004
Posts: 34968

Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:55 pm    Post subject:  

Drake's equation is based on a false premise. When you actually have empirical evidence of those eight civilizations get back to me.

And it would be nothing like looking for a needle in a hay stack. If they are advanced they will have harnessed the radio wave for communication and that is a signature that cannot be mistaken.

One advanced civilization in our own galaxy would be easily detectable, much less eight.
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Wizard From Oz



Joined: 18 Aug 2006
Posts: 11297
Location: Kansas

Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:55 pm    Post subject:  

Quote: Buzzkill.

Then how did they find us? Do their UFO's have better needle detecting equipment?

Didn't you get the memo?

Ever wonder about humans devotion to needlepoint and quilt making... You think thats an accident?

Get my point? :P
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ieatfood



Joined: 28 Mar 2005
Posts: 6505

Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:22 am    Post subject:  

cap'n queasy wrote: Drake's equation is based on a false premise. When you actually have empirical evidence of those eight civilizations get back to me.

And it would be nothing like looking for a needle in a hay stack. If they are advanced they will have harnessed the radio wave for communication and that is a signature that cannot be mistaken.

One advanced civilization in our own galaxy would be easily detectable, much less eight.

I think statistics is much more powerful than empirical evidence in this case. Empirical evidence is unlikely given the vastness of the universe. It would take 100,000 years for radio waves to travel from one side of the galaxy to the other. Human civilization has so far had radio technology for only about 100 years or so. So what are the chances that radio waves will be received from some other intelligence civilization on the other side of the galaxy? None.

If you are waiting for empirical evidence, then you are going to be disappointed. If you just look at the statistics, the evidence is pretty clear.
How many stars are there in the universe? Imagine putting a billion marbles in a container. Than imagine a billion containers being put into a large crate. Then imagine 10,000 crates. Each marble represents a star. Get it?
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Wizard From Oz



Joined: 18 Aug 2006
Posts: 11297
Location: Kansas

Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:47 pm    Post subject:  

Quote: Drake's equation is based on a false premise. When you actually have empirical evidence of those eight civilizations get back to me.

And it would be nothing like looking for a needle in a hay stack. If they are advanced they will have harnessed the radio wave for communication and that is a signature that cannot be mistaken.

One advanced civilization in our own galaxy would be easily detectable, much less eight.

You dont actually know much about the environment of our galaxy do you?

The galaxy is about 160,000 light years across - The spiral arms are only some 1000 to 2500 light years thick. Meaning the ratio is not much better than thick cardboard.

So any radio wave transmited has to find its way through an incredible about of crud and detris to be heard. Distance also becomes a factor as the waves disapate as they move further. Throw into this the fact that every sun and charged particle in the galaxy is also spitting out radio waves and you see how hard it is to pick up the signals.

Best estimates from NASAs SETI program is we can penetrate about 2500 cubic light years with the sort of detecting systems we have now.

At the 2003 IAU conference their was a keynote speech delivered with the title "Why is the galaxy so quiet". So Astronomers agree with you. We should be hearing something..... but put simply we are not.

Drakes equation is not a be all or end all. It is a statisitcal exercise to show the true volumes we are working with, plus the factor many over look - Time

My personal thought is that we will find life in every nook and crany in the galaxy - Intelligent life will prove far far more ellusive. I would almost bet we find evidence of its demise in the form of artifacts before we find anyone to talk to.
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scoobysnack



Joined: 28 Jun 2006
Posts: 65
Location: Don't worry about it!

Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:35 pm    Post subject:  

Yes I believe they exist. I've posted this on another thread, but no one paid any attention. I think it's because, they think if it was true, the news would have already alerted them to it. :lol: :roll:

Supposedly according governement employees working in deep black classified positions, we have identified over 57 different variations of alien species.

Seriously, you have to take the time to watch this video, it will blow your mind. All the videos I post, you should watch, but if you don't watch any other video I suggest, please just watch this one.

This will blow your mind, I promise you!


Disclosure Project

Google video:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1...closure+project

or if you prefer watch it on YouTube, which loads a little faster:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vyVe-6YdUk

another source:

http://www.netro.ca/disclosure/npccmenu.htm


In front of the national press club on May 9th, 2001, government/military people, willing to testify under oath before congress, revealed their involvement in deep black classified projects involving UFOs and aliens. The entire video is two hours long, but the information presented will literally blow your mind! Here's the link, you know what to do:

http://www.netro.ca/disclosure/npccmenu.htm
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1776848428018799270&q=disclosure+project
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vyVe-6YdUk

You can stream it off the site, or download it.

The above link is from the home Page of the Disclosure Project: http://www.disclosureproject.org/

Here is a brief discription of what the Disclosure Project is about:

The Disclosure Project- is a nonprofit research project working to fully disclose the facts about UFOs, extraterrestrial intelligence, and classified advanced energy and propulsion systems. We have over 400 government, military, and intelligence community witnesses testifying to their direct, personal, first hand experience with UFOs, ETs, ET technology, and the cover-up that keeps this information secret.

The recorded testimony of scores of military, government and other witnesses to Unidentified Flying Objects and Extraterrestrial events and projects from around the world establishes the existence of a UFO/Extraterrestrial presence on and around Earth. This recorded testimony consists of dozens of first-hand, often top-secret witnesses to UFO and Extraterrestrial events, internal UFO-related government projects and covert activities, space-based weapons programs, Extraterrestrial Intelligence, and covert, reverse-engineered energy and propulsion system projects. The technologies that are of an Extraterrestrial origin, when publicly released within a planned transition period, will provide solutions to global environmental and security challenges.

These numerous recorded witnesses constitute only a small portion of a vast pool of identified present or former military, intelligence, corporate, aviator, flight control, law enforcement officers, scientists and other witnesses, who will come forward when subpoenaed to testify at Congressional hearings. Without a grant of immunity releasing them from their security oaths, many such unimpeachable witnesses fear to speak out.

Interest you? Watch the press conference that has never been made widley available to the public. Here it is please watch it.

http://www.netro.ca/disclosure/npccmenu.htm

Learn what has been kept a secret from you and the world. Interesting how the mainstream press while aware of the evidence, refuses to reveal it.

This video from CNN about the Disclosure project proves the Disclosure press conference was not staged, as some people think:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hydfsFP4gfU
*fixed link
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scoobysnack



Joined: 28 Jun 2006
Posts: 65
Location: Don't worry about it!

Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:36 pm    Post subject:  

MEDIA PLAY

by Steven M. Greer M.D.
Director, The Disclosure Project

http://www.disclosureproject.org

Copyright 2004



Conventional Wisdom has it that we live in a free and open society with a free press, which plays the role of a key check and balance on government secrecy and abuse. This and other fantasies, foisted on a gullible public, have enabled runaway illegal secret projects to get away with murder, and they are now on the verge of planeticide - the killing of an entire planet.

The truth is that we have free media - so long as it is inconsequential. That is, freedom of the press exists so long as it is exercised within a certain sphere of influence that does not reach a critical mass of significance. Sure, you can say and write anything - so long as it does not get placed in front of the masses in an honest way. The quaint notion of a free press, serving as the Fourth Estate and watching vigilantly over the interests of The People is one of the great lies perpetrated by the government, and by the corporate media itself. Every insider knows this is a lie.

Big Media must be distinguished from the media in general, insofar as the former is utterly corrupted and the latter is sequestered into spheres of limited influence and significance. Mass retail media - the nightly news, CNN, The NY Times, The Washington Post, Newsweek, Time and the like are less free on anything of real significance than the media of many third world countries - or even communist China.

We know, because we have beta tested the system. (More on this later.)

The implications of this corruption cannot be overestimated. In the world today, the corrupt, dumbed-down and controlled Big Media is the central reason for significant investigations being killed, illegal secrecy persisting and major scientific breakthroughs being suppressed.

Without the cooperation, compliance and corruption of Big Media, the shadowy programs that keep the world burning could in no way prevail. In fact, when recently asked by a member of Congress how these illegal operations persist and flourish, I had to tell him it was primarily due to the fact that Big Media give them a free pass.

Years ago, while at a gathering in New York City with Laurence Rockefeller and a few other influential people in the city, Bob Schwartz, a noted journalist who had been on the Board of Time Life (before it was Time Warner, or AOL Time Warner etc, etc) flat out told me that the Big Media "…had become scribes taking dictation from the right hand of the king…" rather than really functioning as a free press and the Fourth Estate. He proceeded to tell me how he had given his friend Mike Wallace of CBS' 60 Minutes a number of government documents on UFOs, and that Mr. Wallace wanted to pursue the story, but ultimately dropped it due to pressure from 'somewhere'.

Now, Big Media will tell you that the UFO matter is closed, that the Air Force looked into UFOs and ended Project Blue Book with a report from the Condon Committee that essentially said there was nothing to study. This is one of the Big Lies and can be proven to be so. But every Big Media outlet in the US holds to this line, notwithstanding overwhelming evidence to the contrary - and the fact that we can now prove that Dr. Condon himself corrupted the study and was on the payroll of the shadowy projects keeping the matter secret!

Essentially, America has no free press of any significance when it comes to real investigative reporting, government secrecy or serious technology breakthroughs dealing with energy and propulsion systems that could replace Big Oil. The Big Media is vertically and horizontally integrated into a large corporate and quasi-governmental matrix of shadowy interests and corrupting influences. In no way is the major media in America free, nor has it been for decades.

In the late 1990s I met with a senior reporter for the Washington Post, whose beat included government, military and national security issues, who told me that he was sitting on rather explosive files on a number of issues (hint: we were talking about secret underground facilities and certain genetic experiments that are ongoing). When I asked him when they would run that story he winked and said, "Oh Dr. Greer, you know that nothing important is ever printed in the Washington Post. We will never print that kind of story and, if anything, we will work to debunk it if it appears anywhere else…" When I asked him, "Well what about the Fourth Estate - our free media being a check and balance on government and extreme secrecy that is out of control?" he said, "You know that doesn't exist anymore…" We had a drink and went on our way.

Senior government officials, members of Congress and top Pentagon officials with whom I have met have cited media infiltration, corruption and ridicule as the main reason they steer clear of certain areas. Why look into super-secret UFO related projects if you will only be shellacked by the Big Media as Senator Moon Beam?

Of course, many people in the media never look into these issues since they have blindly accepted the party line and bought into the ridicule and disinformation surrounding the subject. A lack of independent investigation, and a prevailing prejudice, prevents most journalists from even giving a cursory look into these controversies. A senior editor for the Boston Globe once told me that they would never run a story on UFOs "…even if you put a dead ET on my desk…" since such topics were the stuff of the low-end tabloids. (I guess 24/7 coverage of titillating details of sexual escapades and lurid murders are ok, however.) Persistent ridicule and a glib dismissal of 'conspiracy' theorists and 'UFO believers' are about as far as most journalists get. The facts are seldom investigated, and on the rare occasion when they are, the story is blocked.

It is also an open secret that the intelligence community has infiltrated and used the media for decades. What is not acknowledged is the extent to which the Big Media are controlled by corrupt interests that are the antithesis of freedom. It is a pervasive problem that is subtly managed very quietly, but anyone who has gotten close to the truth on a really Big Story that these interests want kept secret know what happens.

Such journalists walk into the mother of all buzzsaws, and learn very quickly how un-free the Big Media really is. Into The Buzzsaw, with a foreword by Gore Vidal, is a book that recounts the experiences of a number of journalists who came across a story that 'they' did not want out -and who found out how ruthless media suppression really is.

The crown jewel of secrecy is the collection of projects that deal with advanced technologies, energy systems, propulsion systems - and UFO matters - that, once disclosed, would end the need for oil, gas, coal or nuclear power. The corruption and secrecy surrounding this issue is like none other - it is in a class of its own. The media can only cover the subject either in a cavalier or dismissive way - or through direct disinformation and ridicule. No honest investigative report has ever appeared, over time, on this subject in any Big Media outlet - not in over 50 years of secrecy. Why?

Because they are not allowed to do it. And if they did, it would mark the end of their career and possibly their lives. It is not an overstatement to say that I have spoken to mainstream journalist who evince palpable fear when the matter is brought up.

Of course, because of sensational cases of 'investigative reporting' like Watergate, Monica-gate and the like, the public believe the media is this fierce watch dog guarding the interests of the people and courageously ferreting out the truth. If only.

Sure, Big Media can have 24/7 coverage of trivial matters like a President's private sex life (NEWS FLASH: Powerful men are known to have affairs and may even - gasp - lie about it!). Or a bungled and clumsy break-in at the Watergate. But the really big stories are never printed, the research is not allowed, and the truth is only whispered about privately, and carefully.

Shills in the Big Media are the central reason why the truth about many matters of great importance will never be told. Sure they will tell you about a titillating scandal, or about a tax cut, or a bombing. But get close to stories related to real power, and these Big Media hacks run the other way.

The proof?

In May of 2001, The Disclosure Project (www.DisclosureProject.org) held a major international press conference at the National Press Club in Washington DC. Hosted by legendary White House reporter Sarah McClendon, the event featured over 20 top-secret government, military, intelligence and corporate witnesses to UFO events and projects. No flakes amongst these: The witness testimony presented ranged from Brig. General to Colonels to a top FAA official. The National Press Club ballroom was packed with media from around the world and the event was - briefly - reported on CNN, BBC, Fox and many other outlets.

This two-hour event was the most watched live press event on the Internet and eventually over 1 million people saw the event on the net. We called for a full investigation into illegal covert programs dealing with UFOs and covert energy and propulsion projects. Congressional hearings were requested and the media were asked to fully investigate the matter. Tens of thousands of people wrote members of Congress and the US President asking for full, open, honest hearings at which some of the over 400 military and government-connected witnesses identified by The Disclosure Project could testify. (The reader may read the testimony of over 5 dozen of these witnesses in the book Disclosure or view their testimony at www.DisclosureProject.org).

Interestingly, the first hour of the event was externally electronically jammed by "someone outside the Press Club", according to Internet hosting company Connect Live. (Sources later confirmed that this was an electronic warfare jamming of the broadcast.)

Senior producers at two Big Media networks, who had been briefed in advance and were planning major exposes in their newsmagazine programs, later told me that they were not allowed to go forward with their investigations or broadcast the programs. When I asked why, they simply said, "They just won't let us do it." And when I ask who are 'they', I was told, "Dr. Greer, you know who they are…"

Indeed.

Here, smoking gun evidence, official government documents and dozens of credible, corroborated, top-secret witnesses were presented to the world's major media - and Big Media did virtually nothing. On major stories, involving controversial matters, I am told the New York Times requires three points of corroboration. Here, dozens were presented, from men and women with impeccable credentials and high national security clearances - and they were not anonymous sources, but presented with name, rank and serial number! But the coverage was brief (just enough to allow for 'plausible freedom of the press', I am told by insiders) and then quickly taken down. And no Big Media entity was allowed to do serious follow-up investigations. And none have occurred up to this date.

Such 'editorial discretion' has been abused hundreds of times to keep big stories out of the major media. People do not realize it, but we already live in an extremely controlled and closed society that is micro-managed by an elite few - all the while looking populist, democratic and open. As I write this a few miles from Thomas Jefferson's home, Monticello, I can feel him spinning in his grave…

Meanwhile, it is up to us to get the truth out, notwithstanding the overwhelming force and corruption of the Big Media. It is almost too late - but not quite. With a Herculean effort, we might yet get the facts out before the public before the control freaks run the entire biosphere into the ground and we end up, Mad Max-like, fighting over the last barrel of oil in endless oil wars.

Perhaps someone in Big Media will step up to the plate and do the matter justice. But more likely, we need to identify a financial sponsor to start what I am calling "The Disclosure Network" via satellite. With adequate funding, we could begin real investigative reporting on issues that really matter - and renew the promise of a free press.

Until then, spread the word and get the truth out. Ultimately, if the people will lead the leaders will follow. Time is getting short for the corrupt corporate Big Media to regain its role as the Fourth Estate. And the earth cannot take another 50 years of ecological abuse, geopolitical instability born out of the injustice of poverty, and more oil wars. It is up to us to change course and create the sustainable civilization necessary for peace. For without peace there can be no future - and peace is impossible without truth, an open society and justice. There is time to act, but we must act now.

Steven M. Greer MD
Director, Disclosure Project
http://www.DisclosureProject.org
29 April 2004
Albemarle County, Virginia




Source: http://www.disclosureproject.org/mediaplay.htm
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Free Thinkr



Joined: 27 Jul 2004
Posts: 12876
Location: Northwest Indiana

Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 6:39 pm    Post subject:  

cap'n queasy wrote: Free Thinkr wrote: I suppose they do. Do intelligent aliens exist? I suppose they do. But then, these are merely suppositions; the likelihood of either I base mainly on the sheer size of our universe.

Some might debate whether or not the size of the universe is relevant to the equation.
On what basis?

Quote: I think if there were advanced civilizations nearby we would have detected them by now.
First of all, I disagree. It's presumptuous at best to assume we would have detected them by now; our capabilities are meager indeed. Secondly, it's very possible advanced civilizations are very far from us; hell, the nearest star is what, 7 light years? Our universe is some 15 billion light years across, IIRC.

Quote: Perhaps life (or even just intelligent life) is extremely rare or unique.
I have little doubt it is! The universe is simply so immense, IMO, that regardless how rare life is, there is very likely other life. It's crazy to think about.

Quote: The empirical evidence suggests this might very well be the case.
What evidence is that?

Quote: Of course, we might just way be out in the boonies or something. If that is the case I think it is probably for the best. I see no reason to suppose alien life forms are really any different from the ones we know about on earth, and therefore potentially dangerous.
Quite possibly. IMO, the likelihood of us ever making any contact is very low. Man will not be around long in the grand scheme of things, and the same goes for any other life; I find it hard to believe that we'd ever be able to move through the universe at sufficient speed to meet any other life. But then, who knows.
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cap'n queasy



Joined: 15 May 2004
Posts: 34968

Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 6:46 pm    Post subject:  

Quote: On what basis?

Simply because the universe is large does not mean there are many life forms in it.

The earth may be unique in it's capacity to support life. Even if you were somehow able to quadruple the size of the universe that wouldn't change the fact that earth is unique in this capacity one iota.

Quote: What evidence is that?

I should say lack of evidence, I suppose :lol:

What I mean is there is no evidence, empirical or otherwise, that life exists other than on the earth.

Quote: Quite possibly. IMO, the likelihood of us ever making any contact is very low. Man will not be around long in the grand scheme of things, and the same goes for any other life; I find it hard to believe that we'd ever be able to move through the universe at sufficient speed to meet any other life. But then, who knows.

If that is the case then the whole question is a moot point anyway. :-D

But like you said, who knows? And I totally agree that it "crazy" to think about. What a trip existence is. :lol:
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Free Thinkr



Joined: 27 Jul 2004
Posts: 12876
Location: Northwest Indiana

Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:47 am    Post subject:  

cap'n queasy wrote: Quote: On what basis?

Simply because the universe is large does not mean there are many life forms in it.
Of course. I never claimed otherwise; my point was that the immense size of the universe make life more likely.

Quote: The earth may be unique in it's capacity to support life. Even if you were somehow able to quadruple the size of the universe that wouldn't change the fact that earth is unique in this capacity one iota.
Possibly, but I see no support whatever for this, and considerable support for the notion that the Earth is not particularly special.

Quote: Quote: What evidence is that?

I should say lack of evidence, I suppose :lol:
Lack of evidence is not evidence of lacking. :lol:

Quote: What I mean is there is no evidence, empirical or otherwise, that life exists other than on the earth.
Well, there's no reason I know of to think this wouldn't be the case.

Quote: Quote: Quite possibly. IMO, the likelihood of us ever making any contact is very low. Man will not be around long in the grand scheme of things, and the same goes for any other life; I find it hard to believe that we'd ever be able to move through the universe at sufficient speed to meet any other life. But then, who knows.

If that is the case then the whole question is a moot point anyway. :-D
I suppose it is. I guess the difference would be bothering to try vs. not bothering to try.

Quote: But like you said, who knows? And I totally agree that it "crazy" to think about. What a trip existence is. :lol:
Absolutely. It's insane to imagine an alien intelligence. It's easy to conceive of life so different from our own that communication or any sort of relation would be nearly impossible.
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cap'n queasy



Joined: 15 May 2004
Posts: 34968

Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 4:36 am    Post subject:  

Quote: my point was that the immense size of the universe make life more likely.


Either life is unique to earth or it isn't. The size of the universe has nothing to do with that. We simply do not have enough data to say what the probability actually is, either way. For one thing the size of the universe is not a static variable.


I'll bet you will find this article interesting.
http://disf.org/en/Voci/65.asp
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NAB



Joined: 25 May 2006
Posts: 13621
Location: Where the stars at night, are big and bright

Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:50 am    Post subject:  

MG1962 wrote: Quote: Drake's equation is based on a false premise. When you actually have empirical evidence of those eight civilizations get back to me.

And it would be nothing like looking for a needle in a hay stack. If they are advanced they will have harnessed the radio wave for communication and that is a signature that cannot be mistaken.

One advanced civilization in our own galaxy would be easily detectable, much less eight.

You dont actually know much about the environment of our galaxy do you?

The galaxy is about 160,000 light years across - The spiral arms are only some 1000 to 2500 light years thick. Meaning the ratio is not much better than thick cardboard.

So any radio wave transmited has to find its way through an incredible about of crud and detris to be heard. Distance also becomes a factor as the waves disapate as they move further. Throw into this the fact that every sun and charged particle in the galaxy is also spitting out radio waves and you see how hard it is to pick up the signals.

Best estimates from NASAs SETI program is we can penetrate about 2500 cubic light years with the sort of detecting systems we have now.

At the 2003 IAU conference their was a keynote speech delivered with the title "Why is the galaxy so quiet". So Astronomers agree with you. We should be hearing something..... but put simply we are not.

Drakes equation is not a be all or end all. It is a statisitcal exercise to show the true volumes we are working with, plus the factor many over look - Time

My personal thought is that we will find life in every nook and crany in the galaxy - Intelligent life will prove far far more ellusive. I would almost bet we find evidence of its demise in the form of artifacts before we find anyone to talk to.

That reminds me of a sci-fi story I read long ago. (I can't remember the name of it). The premise was that the spiral arm that our solar system is in was the "scene" of a long-passed galactic war, so most of the planets in our region were lifeless, thus the silence. In the story, human civilzation (which had finally developed ftl space travel), was beginning to wonder if they were truly alone in the universe. I'm a bit hazy, but at the end of the story I remember they finally made contact, only to discover that humans were the source of the original battle and had been thought to be decimated by the more peaceful species fighting against us. Basically the story ended with the re-discovery of Earth and getting wiped out again to keep our dangerous race from spreading once again.

I can buy it. 8:)
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Wizard From Oz



Joined: 18 Aug 2006
Posts: 11297
Location: Kansas

Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:43 pm    Post subject:  

Quote: That reminds me of a sci-fi story I read long ago. (I can't remember the name of it). The premise was that the spiral arm that our solar system is in was the "scene" of a long-passed galactic war, so most of the planets in our region were lifeless, thus the silence.

Yes yes - I have a feeling it was by Norman Spinrad. Very good piece. Cause the aliens tell the humans about the war. And the humans think the aliens did the right thing etc etc. Then realise the aliens are talking about them - and the perspective changed pretty quick lol
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Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:46 pm    Post subject:  

MG1962 wrote: Quote: That reminds me of a sci-fi story I read long ago. (I can't remember the name of it). The premise was that the spiral arm that our solar system is in was the "scene" of a long-passed galactic war, so most of the planets in our region were lifeless, thus the silence.

Yes yes - I have a feeling it was by Norman Spinrad. Very good piece. Cause the aliens tell the humans about the war. And the humans think the aliens did the right thing etc etc. Then realise the aliens are talking about them - and the perspective changed pretty quick lol

You could be right. I remember it was a short-story of some type.
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