Political Crossfire Forums

[Plato & Socrates]

What this mini-war will be called in the future I have no idea. Maybe it might be called the 1 month war, but if I had my way I would call it "The Israeli Disaster" For in this mini-war, Olmert rolled the dices and gambled all he had and lost. Olmert has the P.M where final responsibility rests on his shoulders, presided over a military, strategic & political blunder, the fallout from which we are yet to calculate.

The reason behind Israel’s tactics during this mini-war, looks like it was done under the conditions of a somewhat divided cabinet. Some are blaming Olmert for indecisiveness. Some commentators blame the over reliance on the air campaign. Some are blaming divisions between the politicians and the military, which culminated in the sacking of Major General Udi Adam, who was in command of the Lebanese offensive .For me it was obvious Olmert had an impossible juggling act to perform.

1. He was a new P.M just into office and faced with 2 groups kidnapping his soldiers. Now in order not to look weak, he had to be seen to be tough. This act of being tough is never conducive to smart policy, hence the absurd decision to rush into war for 2 soldiers, believe it or not that is the official reason. :roll:

2. After rushing into this war his second juggling act was to minimize the amount of Israeli soldiers coming home in a body bag. Hence the reason for the over reliance of air-power. All the military experts on T.V was saying this conflict, due to nature of terrain and the tactics adopted by Hezbollah fighters, the hard work had to be done by the infantry. The very nature of this kind of fighting brings with it high casualty numbers. Something he did'nt want to burden himself nor Israel with it appears.

3. The I.D.F totally underestimated the capability, preparedness and tactics adopted by Hezbollah. In hindsight the reliance on air-power looks good, because if you engaged Hezbollah with the amount of soldiers you had in the beginning, your casualty numbers would have been far higher. Hezbollah were using Viet Cong-style defences against the I.D.F. www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1043072
Also when inside Lebanon, the amoured back up for the infantry which was previously invincible, is no longer so. Most of your deaths according to reports are vehicle related, up until last saturdays loss of 17 soldiers.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060805/ap_on_re_mi_ea/mideast_fighting_hezbollah_s_missiles.

Olmert is politically a Dead man walking" and he does'nt even know it yet. Strategically it is a mistake if you believed in Israels reasons for engaging this war, because none of its main objectives have been really achieved. In going for this ceasefire I think Ari Shavit sums it up best.

"If Olmert runs away now from the war he initiated, he will not be able to remain prime minister for even one day," wrote columnist Ari Shavit in the Haaretz paper.
"You cannot lead an entire nation to war promising victory, produce humiliating defeat and remain in power."

More tragically and in the long term the most damaging, Olmert has truely achieved something I never expected to see. That is the disspelling of the myth of the invincibility of the I.D.F. Compared to the ordinance used by the I.A.F, the katuysa rocket was a fire cracker. Yet Hezbollah was able with 2500-3000 men able to with-stand all what Israel had to offer and hold Israel at bay for 1 month, including Israels inability to stop them firing the Kutuysa's, including approximately 200+ the last day before the ceasefire.

So what is the immediate fallout from this mini-war? Many Americans and Israelis believe that the Arab world — and indeed the world at large — chiefly respects the successful use of power. Yet the weakness of this argument is laid bare in Lebanon, Iraq and elsewhere. The US, Israel and their backers, prominently including Tony Blair, are perceived both as behaving immorally, and using force ineffectually. The U.S and U.K not calling for an earlier U.N ceasefire in Lebanon, is going to further diminish our waning influence in that region.

It is understandable that Bush should have endorsed the current Israeli campaign, for no more can be expected from him. It is almost incomprehensible, however, that Tony Blair should also have done so. Israeli actions in Lebanon fail the pragmatic as well as the moral test. There is no possibility that they will suppress terrorist resistance to their polity.
Israel’s attempts to quell opponents by the use of superior force may briefly appease its own public opinion, but contribute nothing to the nation’s lasting security, indeed the reverse.

Hezbollah is a profoundly unpleasant and violent movement, which has inflicted as much grief upon the people of Lebanon as the Israelis. But as long as Israel continues to deny justice to the Palestinians, Hezbollah’s actions will be deemed by many to possess more legitimacy than its own. Higher standards are expected from a sovereign state than a terrorist organisation. Israel has managed to make an organisation at the beginning of this conflict hated by 70% of Lebanon, to the hero's of the Arab world & especially on the streets.
Hezbollah has even crossed the Muslim divide by being lauded by the Sunni's, plus they are seen as the defenders of Lebanon by the people of Lebanon themselves. Not even in Nasrallah's wildest dreams could he have envisioned an outcome like this.

To me this Lebanese adventure is Israels battle of Kursk, for many different reasons. It was the first major tank battle the Germans with superior weaponry lost. Just from a numbers position the allied forces new and documented as early as Aug 1943 that the Germans would lose WW2. After the battle of Kursk, it emboldened the allies to push harder & harder and be more daring against the Germans.

So what has Israel gained from this adventure? The Lebanese state army/U.N force of 15,000 to patrol the the area south of the litani river and purge it of Hezbollah. :lol:
How dumb and myopic is the Israeli cabinet, that they cannot see further down the road to see the juggernaut what is coming. Does anybody know the make-up/composition of the Lebanese army?
Well the Lebanese army is basically shia. (hence why the Lebanese government never sent in the troops to disarm Hezbollah. a shia army disarming shia's. almost certainly an internal shia civil war would have broken out) the rest of the battalions are almost exclusively formed along religious lines. You have Sunni units, Christian units & Druze units. The units which which will make up the bulk of the Lebanese contingent will be Shia, and how much will be made up of ex-Hezbollah? :lol: Nasrallah knows exactly what he is getting, hence his eagerness to except the ceasefire and except disarming his group. They will basically become part of the Lebanese official army.
The Lebanese army south of the litani river will be de-facto Hezbollah. :lol:

The U.N force will find it almost impossible whilst working together with the Lebanese army, to prevent and detect shipments of weapons. Also how long will this force stay and commit men in that region? and Olmert & co are passing it off has some sort of victory? So we have 1100+ Lebanese civilian dead. We have to date over 100+ Israeli soldiers dead. 40+ Israeli civilians dead and many more maimed. Hezbollah intact. Hezbollahs ability to still fire rockets into Israel intact, and for what?

2 soldiers for 110+ soldiers dead AND none of their other objectives accomplished. And do you know what the biggest joke is? It looks like Israel is going to do a prisoner swap with Hezbollah. :?
This whole debacle has been absurd, you could'nt even make it up if you wanted. Olmert & co must go and go now!

[thatisnotme]

As I have posted earlier:Hezbollah will probably claim victory, but soon Lebanese will be returning home or to their business, dealing with the wreckage that Hezbollah -- with starting this war with Israel -- has brought upon them. The Lebanese will be asking the hard question: What was this war all about. The reconstruction will require hundreds of millions of dollars, that Hezbollah will have to fork out if it wants to keep its base -- a monumental task. And Hezbollah will not be able to launch rocket attacks on Israel, as this might hurt the international force led by France -- Hezbollah will not be in a position to alienate the Europeans. And all that for what, so that their Iranian masters could divert the UN attention from their nuclear program?? Iran and Hezbollah -- and the Lebanese people -- will soon learn the heavy price to pay for their foolish adventure.

[mr_happy]

Both sides lost.

ISrael wanted Hezbullah gone, Hezbullah wanted a stunning victory to make themselves look good.

ISrael failed to destroy Hezbullah, and Hezbullah lost 1/4 of its regular fighters, expended a large amount of its rocket cache, and will now ahve to deal with the Lebonese reaction when they come home and find 2.5 Billion in damages. It's obvious who started this war and its even more obvious that Hezbullah will have to start answering questions.

Although Israel didn't kill Hezbullah, they did do something important. Next time someone wants to do a cross border raid, they're gonna remember what happened to Lebanon. While the terrorrists may not care, the people that are sheltering them will. Lebanon's suffering will not fall on deaf ears.

I don't know who came out on top. Hezbullah achieved a "victory" by not being wiped out and Israel showed that they are willing to go to war to avoid a prisoner exchange. I think the era of IDF soldiers being abducted is over, and the era of Israeli deterance is too.

[Plato & Socrates]

thatisnotme wrote: As I have posted earlier:Hezbollah will probably claim victory, but soon Lebanese will be returning home or to their business, dealing with the wreckage that Hezbollah -- with starting this war with Israel -- has brought upon them. The Lebanese will be asking the hard question: What was this war all about. The reconstruction will require hundreds of millions of dollars, that Hezbollah will have to fork out if it wants to keep its base -- a monumental task. And Hezbollah will not be able to launch rocket attacks on Israel, as this might hurt the international force led by France -- Hezbollah will not be in a position to alienate the Europeans. And all that for what, so that their Iranian masters could divert the UN attention from their nuclear program?? Iran and Hezbollah -- and the Lebanese people -- will soon learn the heavy price to pay for their foolish adventure.

I believe you fundamentally misunderstand the feeling of the Lebanese people towards Israel. They don't see it as Hezbollah who cause the destruction, but Israel. This s seen as typical Israeli aggression. You may have had a chance to witness a divided Lebanon if you stuck to bombing south of the Litiani river. But in your insistence to bomb the whole of Lebanon, you only succeeded in uniting Lebanese hatred for Israel.

If you can see clearly enough, Hezbollah will still be in charge of Southern Lebanon, but just under the guise of the official Lebanese government. this time the will re-arm but with more deadlier weapons. So what has Israel achieved except a delay. If you cant see what is coming, and it is going to come, then all I can say is that i'm disappointed in you. What the trigger will be for the next round of fighting in Lebanon in the future will be, I don't know. But none of the fundamentals which started this war has been solved. So what has the Israeli government achieved? I'll tell you, more eager to die, die-hard recruits for Hezbollah.

I'll tell you how to defeat groups like Hizbollah. the defeat of terrorism is best achieved through an unglamorous cocktail of politics, diplomacy, intelligence, bribery, police work and special forces operations. Above all, a successful campaign offers the society from which the terrorists are drawn a just political dispensation.
Contrary to widespread belief, the British did not defeat for example, the 1950s Malayan insurgency by brilliant soldiering, but by shrewd politicking, which included a promise to quit the country. Northern Ireland today may not be a utopia, but it owes its relative tranquillity to politics and economics rather than to 30 years of counter-terrorist campaigning.

If one thing the Israeli public and politicians should take from this f**k up, and that is the limitation of military power alone. This age old view that "I know why they keep fighting, its because we never hit them hard enough" is beyond reality. If this was an experiment, it would have been classed as a failure.
For people to even contemplate "that next time we should hit our enemies even harder". Well a copy of Bill Murry's Groundhog Day is on its way to them by post. :roll: :roll: :roll:

mr happy wrote: I don't know who came out on top. Hezbullah achieved a "victory" by not being wiped out and Israel showed that they are willing to go to war to avoid a prisoner exchange. I think the era of IDF soldiers being abducted is over, and the era of Israeli deterance is too.

Your wrong on 2 out of you 4 points. Hezbollah did achieve a kind of victory by not being wiped out. 2. Israel is going to do a prisoner exchange, and thats a guarantee. 3 Maybe not Hezbollah, but Palestinians in the occupied area's will if opportunity arises abduct your soldiers. In the occupied territory's, you have no moral high ground or can claim that you left the area or say that you don't abduct Palestinians. 4. Israeli deterrence and invincibility is over.

[thatisnotme]

Plato & Socrates wrote: thatisnotme wrote: As I have posted earlier:Hezbollah will probably claim victory, but soon Lebanese will be returning home or to their business, dealing with the wreckage that Hezbollah -- with starting this war with Israel -- has brought upon them. The Lebanese will be asking the hard question: What was this war all about. The reconstruction will require hundreds of millions of dollars, that Hezbollah will have to fork out if it wants to keep its base -- a monumental task. And Hezbollah will not be able to launch rocket attacks on Israel, as this might hurt the international force led by France -- Hezbollah will not be in a position to alienate the Europeans. And all that for what, so that their Iranian masters could divert the UN attention from their nuclear program?? Iran and Hezbollah -- and the Lebanese people -- will soon learn the heavy price to pay for their foolish adventure.

I believe you fundamentally misunderstand the feeling of the Lebanese people towards Israel. They don't see it as Hezbollah who cause the destruction, but Israel. This s seen as typical Israeli aggression. You may have had a chance to witness a divided Lebanon if you stuck to bombing south of the Litiani river. But in your insistence to bomb the whole of Lebanon, you only succeeded in uniting Lebanese hatred for Israel.

If you can see clearly enough, Hezbollah will still be in charge of Southern Lebanon, but just under the guise of the official Lebanese government. this time the will re-arm but with more deadlier weapons. So what has Israel achieved except a delay. If you cant see what is coming, and it is going to come, then all I can say is that i'm disappointed in you. What the trigger will be for the next round of fighting in Lebanon in the future will be, I don't know. But none of the fundamentals which started this war has been solved. So what has the Israeli government achieved? I'll tell you, more eager to die, die-hard recruits for Hezbollah.

I'll tell you how to defeat groups like Hizbollah. the defeat of terrorism is best achieved through an unglamorous cocktail of politics, diplomacy, intelligence, bribery, police work and special forces operations. Above all, a successful campaign offers the society from which the terrorists are drawn a just political dispensation.
Contrary to widespread belief, the British did not defeat for example, the 1950s Malayan insurgency by brilliant soldiering, but by shrewd politicking, which included a promise to quit the country. Northern Ireland today may not be a utopia, but it owes its relative tranquillity to politics and economics rather than to 30 years of counter-terrorist campaigning.

If one thing the Israeli public and politicians should take from this f**k up, and that is the limitation of military power alone. This age old view that "I know why they keep fighting, its because we never hit them hard enough" is beyond reality. If this was an experiment, it would have been classed as a failure.
For people to even contemplate "that next time we should hit our enemies even harder". Well a copy of Bill Murry's Groundhog Day is on its way to them by post. :roll: :roll: :roll:




The future will tell which assessment -- yours or mine -- will be correct. Nevertheless, Hezbollah will need to do a lot of to come to the help of thousands of Lebanese who have lost tremendously just for the sake that Hezbollah's honor prevails. And with the international force occupying South Lebanon, Hezbollah won't be able to launch freely its rockets as it did up to now. So I see nothing but a Pyrrhic victory for Hezbollah.
As for Olmert, he is finished politically and most likely his replacement will be someone who has more military credentials. Expect the right to make huge gains in the next election.

[Plato & Socrates]

thatisnotme wrote: The future will tell which assessment -- yours or mine -- will be correct. Nevertheless, Hezbollah will need to do a lot of to come to the help of thousands of Lebanese who have lost tremendously just for the sake that Hezbollah's honor prevails. And with the international force occupying South Lebanon, Hezbollah won't be able to launch freely its rockets as it did up to now. So I see nothing but a Pyrrhic victory for Hezbollah.

WTF? Are you joking with me? Pyrrhic victory? International force in the south? Did you read my post? Why do you think Nasrallah was so eager to except the ceasefire terms? None of the issues which lead to this mini-war have been resolved. Hezbollah was a proxy agent for whom and for what reason? My god man, Hezbollah are going to use this time to resupply and re-arm. Do you think they care about the Lebanese population? They hid amongst the population, Israel blew them to bits, and they are 100x more popular than before. The next time bombs rain on Israel, it is going to be much worse than those Katuysa's.

They are going to be soon, and mark my words, be the de-facto protectors of Lebanon. When they resupply under the guise of the official Lebanese army, they are going to be armed to the teeth. When Israel goes into Lebanon again, considering what they did this time, what other bombing have they got left to do, except to genuinely target the population. Because I guarantee you the next type of weapons Hezbollah will fire in 5+ years time will be serious stuff. You have been warned.

[Duchifas]

Plato & Socrates wrote: This whole debacle has been absurd, you could'nt even make it up if you wanted. Olmert & co must go and go now!

Yup. While the war against Hizbollah was 100% justified, it was 100% screwed up. And that idiot of a Prime Minister has the chutzpah to declare victory.

[skinn]

Duchifas wrote: Plato & Socrates wrote: This whole debacle has been absurd, you could'nt even make it up if you wanted. Olmert & co must go and go now!

Yup. While the war against Hizbollah was 100% justified, it was 100% screwed up. And that idiot of a Prime Minister has the chutzpah to declare victory.

most lebanese would prefer seeing hizbollah dissarmed, but from day 1, many of us (lebanese) knew this was not the way to do it.

what Israel failed to see, is that Nasrallah is not a dictator and he cannot be overthrown ( a la saddam style).

Israel failed to notice that hizbollah is the people, hizbollah is nearly a whole sect (shiites) who would die for hizbollah with no second thoughts.

This is why hizbollah is unbeatable. Hizbollah doesn't fear death, in fact they await martyrdom passionately, how could u fight someone who does not fear death.

This is why some lebanese were having understandings with hizbollah in order to find a solution for the arms, because they knew that hizbollah's arms can only be handed with peace and trust and diplomacy.

[superskippy]

You can defeat people who dont fear death, by killing them. The problam was Olmert through his own decisions and limitations did not allow the IDF to operate even close to as effectivly as it could.

[skinn]

superskippy wrote: You can defeat people who dont fear death, by killing them. The problam was Olmert through his own decisions and limitations did not allow the IDF to operate even close to as effectivly as it could.

those are well trained fighters and and the whole war decision was a mistake.

[superskippy]

They are well trained and experianced and thus not easy to replace.

But the attack was a good idea, but it was bungled by aforementioned people.

[theshield]

skinn wrote: Israel failed to notice that hizbollah is the people, hizbollah is nearly a whole sect (shiites) who would die for hizbollah with no second thoughts.

This is why hizbollah is unbeatable.

Israelis understand that very well maybe it is the rest of the world that need to understand that.

That is why the goals of the operation set by Olmert were unattainable.Because the real question he should have asked himself before starting this whole affair is whether he is willing to kill every living Lebanese Shiites.Since the answer would be no.The outcome was known in advance.
What saved Hezbollah is not their will to fight but Israel unwillingness to throw its moral standards.It would have cost us much less human life and you much more if Israel did it.

[ToonArmyIsComing]

Israel has lost in many other ways in terms of the regional issues:

1- Turkey: a moderate Muslim country friendly towards Israel has increasingly become anti-Israeli to the point that the Turkish government had to cancel contracts with Israel. This does not bode well in terms of the long term prospects of friendship with Muslim nations. [Hey, did they even bother to think about these consequences?]

Look at this sign in Turkey for instance saying: Israeli child killers keep out ...



http://www.ynetnews.com/Ext/Comp/ArticleLayout/CdaArticlePrintPreview/1,2506,L-3291342,00.html

2- Iran: Modernizing forces who are far more friendly towards Israel are now going to be put under intense pressure because the Islamic radicals within Iran will feel embolden as a result of the perceived victory of Hezbollah over Israel, which will result in the repression of the moderate modernizing people and will make Iran even more hostile to the West. [I bet those morons attacking Hezbollah never thought of this].

3- Iraq: The alliance with Iran is stronger than ever and a supposedly American friendly government was boycotted by many members of the congress for its criticism of Israel.

4- Saudi Arabia: Al Qaeda [a Wahabi/Sunni] group came out in support of Hezbollah [a Shiite group]. This was really the first time that such a thing has happened publicly.

5- Egypt and Jordan: Two of the most pathetic governments in the region now with their people now firmly realizing how pathetic their governments are. Surely the writing is on the wall and the Muslim brotherhood must be happy that their support is becoming stronger and stronger increasingly among the Egyptians and the Jordanians.

6- Syria: It has withstood the pressure for the time being and hasn't been touched.

[theshield]

Muslim and Arabs will always side their brothers regardless of the war outcome ,or who is on the right and who is wrong.What is your point?
It is unique Jewish phenomena not to side with your own people.

[Plato & Socrates]

theshield wrote: Muslim and Arabs will always side their brothers regardless of the war outcome ,or who is on the right and who is wrong.What is your point?
It is unique Jewish phenomena not to side with your own people.

That is so not true, Muslims and Arabs disagree on issues all the time, the one thing that unites them is Israeli aggression and that sordid Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Israeli butchery in Palestine would unite anybody. Apart from those 2 issues, they disagree on all different issues like we British do. Many people accuse the Jews of sticking together no matter what., I know for a fact this is not true. But for some people no matter how many times you try and explain this fact, they are not listening.

superskippy wrote: You can defeat people who dont fear death, by killing them. The problam was Olmert through his own decisions and limitations did not allow the IDF to operate even close to as effectivly as it could.

Skippy, wars are'nt 2 or 5 day affairs. I debated with you before about Israel(I.D.F) has only faced Micky Mouse opposition, and that is no way to gage the true ability of an army. Israel had command of the Air, Ground and sea. I wont go into detail, but virtually to a man, all the British military experts on T.V said this war showed Israel 2 things. The limitations of military muscle alone and the myth of the invincibility of the I.D.F.

Israel in the past has gotten so used to fighting inept opponents, that the first time you fight a real battle ready force, you came unstuck. They did'nt even have 1% of your military hardware, you out numbered them 2500-3000 fighter to 30,000 soldiers. That was a ratio of 10 to 1, and do you know what was the defining moment of this mini-war? The ability to knock-out your tanks and bring your armored columns to a stand still. news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060805/ap_on_re_mi_ea/mideast_fighting_hezbollah_s_missiles

Almost half of your deaths were vehicle related and the rest was when you sent in your boys without sufficient armored back up, due to access, terrain & the vulnerability of your armored columns. No matter what force/army in the world you are, when you fight as we British say "Eyeball to Eyeball" forget what you see coming out of Hollywood and films like Delta force and G.I Jane et al.
The close quarter guerrilla fighter your boys were engaged in, brings with it high casualty figures. That's why the sacking of Major General Udi Adam, who was in command of the Lebanese offensive, was as a scapegoat. This man is a bloody hero, he saved you lives. How many more soldiers would have died, just to kill a few more Hezbollah, and still have the ceasefire we have today?

Somebody said to me that "unlike you British, we don't leave our men behind." So I said something along the lines of "those soldiers new the risks, and are you going to let 10 soldiers die rescuing 2, your damn right we British would leave them behind."
Well the score is 2 soldiers still missing and 117 soldiers dead, and Israel is going to do a prisoner swap with Hezbollah.
So tell me skippy what was the point of this mini-war, and do you still think force is the answer? Where have the brains in Jewish society gone? No self respecting man would buy into those "get rich quick schemes." So why does the Israeli cabinet buy into those "military quick fix schemes." If you know the answer skippy, please tell me.

[thatisnotme]

The capture of the two soldiers were just the excuse for Israel to declare war on Hezbollah. Israel had no choice but to fight Hezbollah. Not fighting Hezbollah meant that Hezbollah would have had 50,000 rockets in 2-3 years time. What went wrong is that Olmert thought in the beginning he could do it only with airstrike, when he should have listened to his generals who wanted a ground offensive from the start. Nevertheless, Hezbollah has been greatly damaged. It will have to help to the tune of a billion dollars those Lebanese who lost. It will be more difficult to re-arm and losing its foot ground in South Lebanon, Hezbollah is in a weaker position militarily. Hezbollah welcomed the ceasefire only because the ceasefire put a limit to the damage it was suffering without losing face. It is a Pyrrhic victory for them in every sense of the word.

[mendosan]

This is an intresting take on the recent cobflict entiteld:

If this was a defeat, the Israelis must be praying for a lot more of them
www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,1070-2311756,00.html

Quote: If this was a defeat, the Israelis must be praying for a lot more of them
Tim Hames
IF ONLY Israel were as effective at public relations as at military operations, the results of the conflict on and around its border with Lebanon would be so much starker. As it is, however, the real meaning of the UN resolution that will start to come into force today is being widely misrepresented. Hezbollah is hailing a “victory” of sorts, albeit one of a presentational character. In a bizarre situation, Israeli politicians on both the hard Left and the hard Right appear to agree with the terrorists. All are profoundly mistaken.

What, after all, does this Hezbollah claim consist of? The organisation considers it a triumph that it has not been completely “destroyed” after just four weeks of fighting. It contrasts this with the dismal record of several Arab armies combined in 1967. It has not yet been disarmed and may not be formally neutralised in the near future. Nor has it been discredited on the Arab street, where it has enhanced its popularity. The Hezbollah leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrullah, thus proclaims himself a “new Nasser”.

As victories rank, not being destroyed, disarmed or discredited is not that impressive. It is hardly Henry V at Agincourt. The idea that the Six-Day War represents the military standard for the Arab world is a somewhat humiliating notion. Allowing for the feeble record of the original Nasser, Israelis should not be too disturbed by the prospect of another incarnation. Nor was the Arab street that equivocal about Israel’s existence before these clashes started.

The facts now evident on the ground suggest an entirely different assessment.

First, the damage inflicted by the Israeli Defence Forces on Hezbollah’s infrastructure and resources is far, far greater than the equivalent harm that it has suffered. A sizeable proportion of Hezbollah rocket launchers and fighters have been eliminated, while the Israeli army has lost no more than a few tanks and, to its regret, about 100 soldiers. For a body that is used to incessant combat, this is not a spectacular setback.

Secondly, Hezbollah has deployed a huge percentage of its missile arsenal to very little advantage. Only in the Alice in Wonderland world of the Middle East could it be seen as a “triumph” for a terrorist organisation simply to launch Katyusha missiles in the direction of Israel and roughly 95 per cent of them to hit nothing of any value. It took Hezbollah six years to accumulate a stockpile that, fundamentally, it has wasted.

Thirdly, the administration in Lebanon, which had ostentatiously refused to send its soldiers to the south of that country for the past six years, has been obliged to pledge to the United Nations that it will now do so. It will, furthermore, be under the de facto control of a much larger international force than has been assembled in that region before — one that will be judged a success or otherwise by the extent to which it keeps the place quiet.

The wider strategic consequences of these recent events are yet more significant. Hezbollah was, until July 11, a problem exclusively for Israel. That dilemma has been internationalised. It is now of paramount importance to the Lebanese Government and the UN Security Council. If Lebanon’s troops cannot pacify Hezbollah then ministers there well know that Israel’s air force will be back over Beirut. The UN will come to appreciate that if it cannot maintain the peace this will be because Hezbollah has broken the ceasefire that the Security Council imposed, and its own authority will be endangered. This is an important breakthrough for Israel. If Ehud Olmert, the Prime Minister, had been told six weeks ago that Hezbollah would cease to be the principal militia in southern Lebanon by the beginning of September he wouldn’t have believed it possible.

Further, Israel’s security has been improved more than has been acknowledged. Fewer than three years ago, Israel’s northern border was exposed to Hezbollah, its eastern boundary with the West Bank was so porous that suicide bombers regularly broke through it and its military was engaged in a bitter and often futile attempt to contain Hamas in Gaza. As of now, it can be confident of pushing Hezbollah back beyond the Litani river in Lebanon, the barrier it erected around the West Bank has reduced the number of suicide blast atrocities to the level of an unfortunate irritation and Hamas, whose military command was decapitated by Israel in a series of controversial strikes in 2004, is more likely to engage in a civil war with Fatah than it is seriously to inconvenience Mr Olmert.

The final dimension to this saga may, nevertheless, prove the most compelling. The past few weeks have exposed Iran’s pivotal role as the political patron of terrorism as well as the audacity and extent of its ambitions to shape Islam in its image. None of this has taken Israel by surprise. It has been a severe blow to Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Jews constitute no threat to mainstream Sunni Islam. The Shia challenge is another matter. Once the crocodile tears for Lebanon have dried up (which will take a month at most) and the mood on the Arab street has moved on (which will not take much longer), it will become obvious to Sunni regimes that Israel is an ally against Iran. The rhetoric directed against Israel will not abate, but it will be increasingly irrelevant.

That Lebanese civilians with no connection to terrorism have died while all this has occurred is a tragedy of the highest order. Israel relied too much on air power at the start of these exchanges and allowed its opponents a propaganda opportunity. Yet, in the end, Israel’s survival does not depend on Arab “hearts and minds” or opinions expressed by television viewers who live many thousands of miles away. It relies instead on winning crucial battles. If this is a “defeat”, then Israel can afford many similar outcomes.

Its slightly more up beat that the rubbish that has been posted.

[SpartanPhalanx]

thatisnotme wrote: As I have posted earlier:Hezbollah will probably claim victory, but soon Lebanese will be returning home or to their business, dealing with the wreckage that Hezbollah -- with starting this war with Israel -- has brought upon them. The Lebanese will be asking the hard question: What was this war all about. The reconstruction will require hundreds of millions of dollars, that Hezbollah will have to fork out if it wants to keep its base -- a monumental task. And Hezbollah will not be able to launch rocket attacks on Israel, as this might hurt the international force led by France -- Hezbollah will not be in a position to alienate the Europeans. And all that for what, so that their Iranian masters could divert the UN attention from their nuclear program?? Iran and Hezbollah -- and the Lebanese people -- will soon learn the heavy price to pay for their foolish adventure.

Well, every Lebanese I have seen or read about on whichever news source you like, all say the same thing....victory for Hezbollah. The respect Hezbollah now garners in the Arab World is probably unprecedented in modern times. The damage incurred by the Lebanese in all of Lebanon, not just the south is, in their eyes, worth it because Hezbollah was not destroyed, as the Israelis were saying they were going to do back on 12July. Hezbollah has stood up to the most powerful army in the Middle East, and indeed one of the most powerful military forces in the world. Hezbollah ended up inflicting far more casualties on military personell than civilians and this in itself is garnering respect. Judging from all the news wires out there, Israel has suffered a massive moral blow, its confidence in its ability to dictate is greatly affected. Irael's massive air and artillery power was unable to inflict the crushing blow they said they would inflict.

Hezbollah, despite the massive hit it took, seems to have won on many fronts.....they will rebuild southern Lebanon, they will house and keep providing essential services to the population, they have vast amounts of cash to do this...they did it before back in 1982 and they will do it again. The population know this, Hezbollah knows this, the link between the population and Hezbollah is now probably stronger than ever and it will probably remain that way.



Indeed the words and rhetoric coming out of Tehran and Damascus seems to echo my thoughts on the matter.

[thatisnotme]

SpartanPhalanx wrote: thatisnotme wrote: As I have posted earlier:Hezbollah will probably claim victory, but soon Lebanese will be returning home or to their business, dealing with the wreckage that Hezbollah -- with starting this war with Israel -- has brought upon them. The Lebanese will be asking the hard question: What was this war all about. The reconstruction will require hundreds of millions of dollars, that Hezbollah will have to fork out if it wants to keep its base -- a monumental task. And Hezbollah will not be able to launch rocket attacks on Israel, as this might hurt the international force led by France -- Hezbollah will not be in a position to alienate the Europeans. And all that for what, so that their Iranian masters could divert the UN attention from their nuclear program?? Iran and Hezbollah -- and the Lebanese people -- will soon learn the heavy price to pay for their foolish adventure.

Well, every Lebanese I have seen or read about on whichever news source you like, all say the same thing....victory for Hezbollah. The respect Hezbollah now garners in the Arab World is probably unprecedented in modern times. The damage incurred by the Lebanese in all of Lebanon, not just the south is, in their eyes, worth it because Hezbollah was not destroyed, as the Israelis were saying they were going to do back on 12July. Hezbollah has stood up to the most powerful army in the Middle East, and indeed one of the most powerful military forces in the world. Hezbollah ended up inflicting far more casualties on military personell than civilians and this in itself is garnering respect. Judging from all the news wires out there, Israel has suffered a massive moral blow, its confidence in its ability to dictate is greatly affected. Irael's massive air and artillery power was unable to inflict the crushing blow they said they would inflict.

Hezbollah, despite the massive hit it took, seems to have won on many fronts.....they will rebuild southern Lebanon, they will house and keep providing essential services to the population, they have vast amounts of cash to do this...they did it before back in 1982 and they will do it again. The population know this, Hezbollah knows this, the link between the population and Hezbollah is now probably stronger than ever and it will probably remain that way.



Indeed the words and rhetoric coming out of Tehran and Damascus seems to echo my thoughts on the matter.

Hezbollah-Syria-Iran are preaching to the choir about their victory. In reality, the Lebanese economy is in total ruins, while that of Israel it is intact, like dust to be shaken from one's shoulders. Hezbollah won't be able to launch rockets from South Lebanon as this region will be patrolled by an international force. So on both the military and economic fronts, Hezbollah is the loser.

[SpartanPhalanx]

ToonArmyIsComing wrote: Israel has lost in many other ways in terms of the regional issues:

1- Turkey: a moderate Muslim country friendly towards Israel has increasingly become anti-Israeli to the point that the Turkish government had to cancel contracts with Israel. This does not bode well in terms of the long term prospects of friendship with Muslim nations. [Hey, did they even bother to think about these consequences?]

Look at this sign in Turkey for instance saying: Israeli child killers keep out ...



http://www.ynetnews.com/Ext/Comp/ArticleLayout/CdaArticlePrintPreview/1,2506,L-3291342,00.html

2- Iran: Modernizing forces who are far more friendly towards Israel are now going to be put under intense pressure because the Islamic radicals within Iran will feel embolden as a result of the perceived victory of Hezbollah over Israel, which will result in the repression of the moderate modernizing people and will make Iran even more hostile to the West. [I bet those morons attacking Hezbollah never thought of this].

3- Iraq: The alliance with Iran is stronger than ever and a supposedly American friendly government was boycotted by many members of the congress for its criticism of Israel.

4- Saudi Arabia: Al Qaeda [a Wahabi/Sunni] group came out in support of Hezbollah [a Shiite group]. This was really the first time that such a thing has happened publicly.

5- Egypt and Jordan: Two of the most pathetic governments in the region now with their people now firmly realizing how pathetic their governments are. Surely the writing is on the wall and the Muslim brotherhood must be happy that their support is becoming stronger and stronger increasingly among the Egyptians and the Jordanians.

6- Syria: It has withstood the pressure for the time being and hasn't been touched.

Very interesting article concerning the sign in the Turkish store....Well, What do Israelis expect?...they have been seen by the world as using obscene amounts of firepower directed against all the civilian infrastructure of the populations in southern Lebanon and many other parts of the country. How can an Israeli, knowing full well the death and destruction his country reaped on a defenceless nation(compared to the firepower Israel has at its disposal)...be "shocked" and surprised by the sign???

In his hear of hearts, this Israeli knows very well Israel has lost the propaganda war, the moral position Israel employed has been shattered as well. Finally, from the military standpoint, Israel's inability to inflict the coup de gras it said it would has given the Arab world a massive psychological advantage over Israel.