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brian_in_idaho
Joined: 09 Jun 2006
Posts: 283
Location: Northern Idaho
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| Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 12:21 am Post subject: Iraq-What happens if the US withdraws tomorrow? |
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All sides would like to be able to bring our troops home, for a variety of reasons. Given the current situation in Iraq, what do you think would happen in Iraq if the US forces were to be suddenly withdrawn?
Given the current level of violence between the Sunni and Shina population, I'm betting on a level of bloodshed we can't even imagine. The current government forces are not strong or perhaps committed enough to maintain peace (not that our forces have been successful). Given the minority population of Sunni Muslims, and the level of violence they have instigated, do you anticipate widespread genocide on the part of the majority Shia population against them? Also, would either, or both, turn on the Kurdish population?
I'd like to see out troops brought home as soon as possible, we have lost enough lives...however I fear we are condemning the Iraqi population to a terrible fate if we do so. At the same time, I am starting to believe we have done enough, the opportunity for a productive, democratic society has been offered, at a great price to the US. If the Iraqi people can't seize that and make it work, maybe it's not worth any more American lives.
On perhaps a different note, what ideas do you have for ending the violence between the various factions?
Bri |
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thatisnotme
Joined: 26 Mar 2006
Posts: 452
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| Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 7:02 am Post subject: Re: Iraq-What happens if the US withdraws tomorrow? |
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brian_in_idaho wrote: All sides would like to be able to bring our troops home, for a variety of reasons. Given the current situation in Iraq, wat do you think would happen in Iraq if the US forces were to be suddenly withdrawn?
Given the current level of violence between the Sunni and Shina population, I'm betting on a level of bloodshed we can't even imagine. The current government forces are not strong or perhaps committed enough to maintain peace (not that our forces have been successful). Given the minority population of Sunni Muslims, and the level of violence they have instigated, do you anticipate widespread genocide on the part of the majority Shia population against them? Also, would either, or both, turn on the Kurdish population?
I'd like to see out troops brought home as soon as possible, we have lost enough lives...however I fear we are condemning the Iraqi population to a terrible fate if we do so. At the same time, I am starting to believe we have done enough, the opportunity for a productive, democratic society has been offered, at a great price to the US. If the Iraqi people can't sieze that and make it work, maybe it's not worth any more American lives.
On perhaps a different note, what ideas do you have for ending the violence between the various factions?
Bri
The Sunnis and Shiites have been at war in Iraq for nearly 700 years. It is unlikely that they will find a way to get along in the next 50 years. The stability they had prior to the US invasion was due to the ruthless regime of Saddam, a Sunni. The Sunnis got into power nearly 80 years ago when it was a British protectorate. The Brits, witnessing the bloodshed, unlike the US, chose a side -- the Sunnis. It is unlikely they will bow to the Shiites, who are the majority (60%). So forget about democracy. Should the US withdraw -- which I believe they should -- the sectarian war could degenerate into a regional war, drawing in the other Sunni nations (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan) and the Shiites(Iran). Complicating the picture are the Kurds that if they should get their independence this will draw in the Turks (and Iran) who have a significant number of Kurds on their territory that will be tempted to join with this 'Kurdistan'.
In other words, this is a total mess, which Colin Powell had predicted and had told Bush the father not to go in Iraq in 1991. The father was wiser than the son -- he listened to Powell. The son unfortunately listened to Cheney and Rumsfeld.
My own two cents on the subject... |
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mr_happy
Joined: 29 Mar 2006
Posts: 319
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| Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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| agreed |
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brian_in_idaho
Joined: 09 Jun 2006
Posts: 283
Location: Northern Idaho
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| Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 2:19 pm Post subject: Re: Iraq-What happens if the US withdraws tomorrow? |
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thatisnotme wrote: brian_in_idaho wrote: All sides would like to be able to bring our troops home, for a variety of reasons. Given the current situation in Iraq, wat do you think would happen in Iraq if the US forces were to be suddenly withdrawn?
Given the current level of violence between the Sunni and Shina population, I'm betting on a level of bloodshed we can't even imagine. The current government forces are not strong or perhaps committed enough to maintain peace (not that our forces have been successful). Given the minority population of Sunni Muslims, and the level of violence they have instigated, do you anticipate widespread genocide on the part of the majority Shia population against them? Also, would either, or both, turn on the Kurdish population?
I'd like to see out troops brought home as soon as possible, we have lost enough lives...however I fear we are condemning the Iraqi population to a terrible fate if we do so. At the same time, I am starting to believe we have done enough, the opportunity for a productive, democratic society has been offered, at a great price to the US. If the Iraqi people can't sieze that and make it work, maybe it's not worth any more American lives.
On perhaps a different note, what ideas do you have for ending the violence between the various factions?
Bri
The Sunnis and Shiites have been at war in Iraq for nearly 700 years. It is unlikely that they will find a way to get along in the next 50 years. The stability they had prior to the US invasion was due to the ruthless regime of Saddam, a Sunni. The Sunnis got into power nearly 80 years ago when it was a British protectorate. The Brits, witnessing the bloodshed, unlike the US, chose a side -- the Sunnis. It is unlikely they will bow to the Shiites, who are the majority (60%). So forget about democracy. Should the US withdraw -- which I believe they should -- the sectarian war could degenerate into a regional war, drawing in the other Sunni nations (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan) and the Shiites(Iran). Complicating the picture are the Kurds that if they should get their independence this will draw in the Turks (and Iran) who have a significant number of Kurds on their territory that will be tempted to join with this 'Kurdistan'.
In other words, this is a total mess, which Colin Powell had predicted and had told Bush the father not to go in Iraq in 1991. The father was wiser than the son -- he listened to Powell. The son unfortunately listened to Cheney and Rumsfeld.
My own two cents on the subject...
As you said, a total mess....
If I were a cynic, I'd say go to it with regard to a regional war breaking out between the various sects, maybe they won't have time to attack us. I wouldn't wish that on the innocents though, let alone the economic meltdown it would precipitate.
What is it with Islam that seems to bread so much hatred? OK, I may not like it, but I can see the insurgents attacking Americans. However, they are much busier killing each other than our troops.
Bri |
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thatisnotme
Joined: 26 Mar 2006
Posts: 452
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| Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 2:57 pm Post subject: Re: Iraq-What happens if the US withdraws tomorrow? |
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brian_in_idaho wrote:
What is it with Islam that seems to bread so much hatred? OK, I may not like it, but I can see the insurgents attacking Americans. However, they are much busier killing each other than our troops.
Bri
Read the Koran. Mohammed, dubbed the prophet, was really a warrior, a conqueror in the same vein as Attila the Hun, Genghis Khan, Napoleon, Hitler, etc. His sayings are full of violence towards those who would/will not obey his commands. So those who read the Koran and interpret it literally will come out with a leaning towards violence. It is like making kids read Mein Kampf... what would you expect??? |
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Alula
Joined: 17 May 2005
Posts: 517
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| Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 4:07 pm Post subject: |
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| I'd say if they can't stop a civil war without fighting it out like our ancestors did maybe they could annex half of Iraq to one Nation of Muslims and the other to the other Half The Kurdish people live in the north you could make them a province of who they get along with better. I have no Idea. Obviously. If then its like North and South Korea it would still have probably many problems. If they were not happy with the Division of their country. |
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