Political Crossfire Forums

[Duchifas]

superskippy wrote: Thats why we're in Lebanon and taking over their bases, and they arent?

No, that's why their facilities are mostly underground (courtesy of Barak's withdrawal) and you can barely get to them, while a million of Israelis have their lives paralyzed for two weeks already.

Even if Israel does win this war (whatever we define winning as), which I hope it does, in the long term it won't matter much, because Israel's idiotic leadership is intent on bringing Lebanon to your doorstep.

Quote: Olmert stands behind realignment plan
Herb Keinon, THE JERUSALEM POST Jul. 24, 2006

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert indicated Monday that the fighting in the north and south has not dampened his enthusiasm for realignment, telling Gaza evacuees in Nitzan that other settlements will be evacuated.

"Your difficulties are clear to me and we will solve the problems," Olmert told representatives of the evacuees living in temporary housing in Nitzan.

"We will yet evacuate communities and it is important to me to complete this chapter as soon as possible so that we will be able to continue as a strong and united nation for the challenges that await us."

Olmert said Israel was "fighting for its right to live."

Olmert also told the Nitzan residents that he was "convinced that we made the right decision to carry out the disengagement plan, and it is better for Israel that you are not living in the Gaza Strip at this time."

"I know that you are angry," he said. "I know that you think that you need to be in Gush Katif. We think differently. The government will invest so that each evacuee feels that the State cares about him and so that your children love the country like your grandfathers did. It is important to me that you know that we are acting out of the same love for Israel that you have."

Olmert went to Nitzan as part of a visit that took him to the Hatzor Air Force base and Ashkelon.

from jpost.com

[thatisnotme]

If Olmert's plan succeed -- routing Hezbollah out of Southern Lebanon -- then his disengagement from WB will not be seen as a sign of weakness, as was in the case of Gaza which Hamas exploited fully as Israel's capitulating.

[Duchifas]

thatisnotme wrote: If Olmert's plan succeed -- routing Hezbollah out of Southern Lebanon -- then his disengagement from WB will not be seen as a sign of weakness, as was in the case of Gaza which Hamas exploited fully as Israel's capitulating.

What do you mean it will not be seen as a sign of weakness? And why will Hamas not exploit it even more fully than it did with Gaza?

[thatisnotme]

Duchifas wrote: thatisnotme wrote: If Olmert's plan succeed -- routing Hezbollah out of Southern Lebanon -- then his disengagement from WB will not be seen as a sign of weakness, as was in the case of Gaza which Hamas exploited fully as Israel's capitulating.

What do you mean it will not be seen as a sign of weakness? And why will Hamas not exploit it even more fully than it did with Gaza?

All will depend on what happens in Lebanon. If Israel can reduce Hezbollah to a non-entity, the message will be to Hamas, "Mess around with us and we will vaporize you." Hence, going on with disengagement in WB cannot, will not be seen as a weakness. All hinges tho' on what happens now. If Lebanon turns out not to be such a victory, then Olmert will have to re-think his disengagement plan.

[Duchifas]

thatisnotme wrote: Duchifas wrote: thatisnotme wrote: If Olmert's plan succeed -- routing Hezbollah out of Southern Lebanon -- then his disengagement from WB will not be seen as a sign of weakness, as was in the case of Gaza which Hamas exploited fully as Israel's capitulating.

What do you mean it will not be seen as a sign of weakness? And why will Hamas not exploit it even more fully than it did with Gaza?

All will depend on what happens in Lebanon. If Israel can reduce Hezbollah to a non-entity, the message will be to Hamas, "Mess around with us and we will vaporize you." Hence, going on with disengagement in WB cannot, will not be seen as a weakness. All hinges tho' on what happens now. If Lebanon turns out not to be such a victory, then Olmert will have to re-think his disengagement plan.

I really don't think that Hamas will be receptive to any message coming out of Lebanon. The last 13 years of Palestinian self-rule have created a class of terrorists within the Palestinian society. There are thousands of young men who have been trained to do nothing except attack Israel. They will need to be occupied, and the only way Palestinians know how to occupy them is to let them attack Israel. Furthermore, 13 years of brainwashing, have created a virtually unlimited pool of such terrorists among the Palestinian youth.

I cannot envision a situation where these tens of thousands of terrorists would say to themselves, well, Israel kicked Hizbollah's ass, I guess I will give up and go.....work. This scenario is particularly unlikely considering that their ideology glorifies death and martydrom. Thus, they will be all too happy to die attacking Israel.

This leads me to my final point, which is whether deterrence is useful when it comes to terrorists. Very recently, I mentioned that I think Israel needs to reestablish deterrence in Lebanon, but I am not sure whether I was wholly right anymore. I think the concept of deterrence certainly applies to states (like Lebanon) more than to terrorist entities like Hizbollah and Hamas and IJ. So in that respect, Israel's action in Lebanon is correct (in terms establishing deterrence vis a vis Lebanon, i.e., making Lebanese more afraid of Israel than of Hizbollah). However, I am not sure whether deterrence can work on suicidal maniacs like Hizbollah and Hamas. It's hard to deter a person who is hellbent on dying from attacking you at the expense of his life. The best approach in this situation is to eliminate such people, or at least incapacitate or severely restrict their ability to attack you.

Thus, I doubt Israel can gain any deterrent power vis a vis Hamas, whatever the result in Lebanon. Withdrawing from WB, however, would provide Hamas with 1) another tremendous psychological victory to take to the Palestinians, 2) a perfect launching pad for further attacks against Israel and 3) gainful employment (attacking Israel) for the thousands of brainwashed young Palestinians, who can't do anything else with their lives except become "martyrs."

The end result would be another terror state ala Gaza or Lebanon in the West Bank. The crucial difference being that West Bank is the high ground that is within spitting distance of major Israeli population centers and infrastructure.

[thatisnotme]

Duchifas wrote: thatisnotme wrote: Duchifas wrote: thatisnotme wrote: If Olmert's plan succeed -- routing Hezbollah out of Southern Lebanon -- then his disengagement from WB will not be seen as a sign of weakness, as was in the case of Gaza which Hamas exploited fully as Israel's capitulating.

What do you mean it will not be seen as a sign of weakness? And why will Hamas not exploit it even more fully than it did with Gaza?

All will depend on what happens in Lebanon. If Israel can reduce Hezbollah to a non-entity, the message will be to Hamas, "Mess around with us and we will vaporize you." Hence, going on with disengagement in WB cannot, will not be seen as a weakness. All hinges tho' on what happens now. If Lebanon turns out not to be such a victory, then Olmert will have to re-think his disengagement plan.

I really don't think that Hamas will be receptive to any message coming out of Lebanon. The last 13 years of Palestinian self-rule have created a class of terrorists within the Palestinian society. There are thousands of young men who have been trained to do nothing except attack Israel. They will need to be occupied, and the only way Palestinians know how to occupy them is to let them attack Israel. Furthermore, 13 years of brainwashing, have created a virtually unlimited pool of such terrorists among the Palestinian youth.

I cannot envision a situation where these tens of thousands of terrorists would say to themselves, well, Israel kicked Hizbollah's ass, I guess I will give up and go.....work. This scenario is particularly unlikely considering that their ideology glorifies death and martydrom. Thus, they will be all too happy to die attacking Israel.

This leads me to my final point, which is whether deterrence is useful when it comes to terrorists. Very recently, I mentioned that I think Israel needs to reestablish deterrence in Lebanon, but I am not sure whether I was wholly right anymore. I think the concept of deterrence certainly applies to states (like Lebanon) more than to terrorist entities like Hizbollah and Hamas and IJ. So in that respect, Israel's action in Lebanon is correct (in terms establishing deterrence vis a vis Lebanon, i.e., making Lebanese more afraid of Israel than of Hizbollah). However, I am not sure whether deterrence can work on suicidal maniacs like Hizbollah and Hamas. It's hard to deter a person who is hellbent on dying from attacking you at the expense of his life. The best approach in this situation is to eliminate such people, or at least incapacitate or severely restrict their ability to attack you.

Thus, I doubt Israel can gain any deterrent power vis a vis Hamas, whatever the result in Lebanon. Withdrawing from WB, however, would provide Hamas with 1) another tremendous psychological victory to take to the Palestinians, 2) a perfect launching pad for further attacks against Israel and 3) gainful employment (attacking Israel) for the thousands of brainwashed young Palestinians, who can't do anything else with their lives except become "martyrs."

The end result would be another terror state ala Gaza or Lebanon in the West Bank. The crucial difference being that West Bank is the high ground that is within spitting distance of major Israeli population centers and infrastructure.

One thing that Israel must do -- and we got indication of that in the Lebanese crisis when the airport was turned into rubble -- is to cut the terrorist's supply line. More easier said than done, but the terrorists are poor, don't have the financial means to get all this weaponry unless there are outside suppliers -- Iran comes to mind, among others.

I agree with you that with the Palestinians, there is a culture of death, and that won't go away overnight, disengagement or not in the WB. But also, the fight must be over the mind and soul of those Palestinians who are tired of the fighting and would be happy to settle for a Palestinian state living side-by-side in peace. With disengasgement, the hope is to give voice to those moderate Palestinians, after all, they will decide if there will be peace or war.

[Duchifas]

thatisnotme wrote: One thing that Israel must do -- and we got indication of that in the Lebanese crisis when the airport was turned into rubble -- is to cut the terrorist's supply line. More easier said than done, but the terrorists are poor, don't have the financial means to get all this weaponry unless there are outside suppliers -- Iran comes to mind, among others.

The Palestinians don't need a supply line. They have learned more than adequately how to manufacture their own rockets. While those rockets are flying into Sderot, a town of 20,000, nobody seemed to pay much attention, even though the town has been practically paralyzed. When these rockets will fly daily into greater Tel Aviv, coastline and Jerusalem, with a population of a few million, that will be much more....annoying.

Quote: I agree with you that with the Palestinians, there is a culture of death, and that won't go away overnight, disengagement or not in the WB. But also, the fight must be over the mind and soul of those Palestinians who are tired of the fighting and would be happy to settle for a Palestinian state living side-by-side in peace. With disengasgement, the hope is to give voice to those moderate Palestinians, after all, they will decide if there will be peace or war.

I question whether there is such a thing as a "moderate" Palestinian any more. Israel, stupidly, through Oslo Accords, gave Fatah/Hamas the opportunity to build a culture of hatred that has few parallels in history (Nazi Germany comes to mind). So I think that the chance of moderate Palestinians taking over as a result of Israeli appeasement is about as good as the chance of moderate Germans taking over as a result of Chamberlain's Munich folly. Unfortunately, at this point there is only one proven way to moderate the Palestinian psyche. And it is not by concessions, but by crushing defeat, as in the case of Germany. After their defeat, the Germans (and Japanese) became a very normal nation, very amenable to peaceful coexistence with their neighbors. I doubt that anything short of that will change the Palestinians.

[thatisnotme]

Duchifas wrote: thatisnotme wrote: One thing that Israel must do -- and we got indication of that in the Lebanese crisis when the airport was turned into rubble -- is to cut the terrorist's supply line. More easier said than done, but the terrorists are poor, don't have the financial means to get all this weaponry unless there are outside suppliers -- Iran comes to mind, among others.

The Palestinians don't need a supply line. They have learned more than adequately how to manufacture their own rockets. While those rockets are flying into Sderot, a town of 20,000, nobody seemed to pay much attention, even though the town has been practically paralyzed. When these rockets will fly daily into greater Tel Aviv, coastline and Jerusalem, with a population of a few million, that will be much more....annoying.

Quote: I agree with you that with the Palestinians, there is a culture of death, and that won't go away overnight, disengagement or not in the WB. But also, the fight must be over the mind and soul of those Palestinians who are tired of the fighting and would be happy to settle for a Palestinian state living side-by-side in peace. With disengasgement, the hope is to give voice to those moderate Palestinians, after all, they will decide if there will be peace or war.

I question whether there is such a thing as a "moderate" Palestinian any more. Israel, stupidly, through Oslo Accords, gave Fatah/Hamas the opportunity to build a culture of hatred that has few parallels in history (Nazi Germany comes to mind). So I think that the chance of moderate Palestinians taking over as a result of Israeli appeasement is about as good as the chance of moderate Germans taking over as a result of Chamberlain's Munich folly. Unfortunately, at this point there is only one proven way to moderate the Palestinian psyche. And it is not by concessions, but by crushing defeat, as in the case of Germany. After their defeat, the Germans (and Japanese) became a very normal nation, very amenable to peaceful coexistence with their neighbors. I doubt that anything short of that will change the Palestinians.

Agree with you on Germany and the necessity for its crushing defeat. Trouble here is the Palestinians don't have an army to crush. Killing terrorists who hide among civilians brings a heap of protest from the bleedinghearts, and surgical bombing has its limited applications. In the end, the Palestinians must root out their own extremists, and we must convince some of them that it is in their best interest to do so. Trouble again is how do we give them (the moderates) teeth and fangs to ward off the terrorists who are ruthless -- easier said than done -- and I'm beginning to think there aren't many palatable solutions.

[superskippy]

Duchifas what would you propose for such a crushing defeat? Do you have some plan we havent already tried? What?

[Duchifas]

superskippy wrote: Duchifas what would you propose for such a crushing defeat? Do you have some plan we havent already tried? What?

What was the last thing Israel tried, that you are referring to? Shelling empty fields in Gaza?

[Duchifas]

thatisnotme wrote: Agree with you on Germany and the necessity for its crushing defeat. Trouble here is the Palestinians don't have an army to crush. Killing terrorists who hide among civilians brings a heap of protest from the bleedinghearts, and surgical bombing has its limited applications.

Yes. 13 years of idiocy put Israel in quite a predicament. Getting out of this mess will not be easy.

Quote: In the end, the Palestinians must root out their own extremists, and we must convince some of them that it is in their best interest to do so. Trouble again is how do we give them (the moderates) teeth and fangs to ward off the terrorists who are ruthless -- easier said than done -- and I'm beginning to think there aren't many palatable solutions.

They will never do it themselves. The moderate among the Palestinians are the ones who emigrated to the West and earn a living and behave like human beings. The difference between the extremists and the moderates in Gaza/WB is that the former want immediate destruction of Israel (Hamas/Haniye), while the latter are willing to wait for it to be done in stages (Fatah/Abbas). I didn't see anyone else getting any significant number of votes in the Palestinian elections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_legislative_election,_2006#Final_results

[superskippy]

Duchifas wrote: superskippy wrote: Duchifas what would you propose for such a crushing defeat? Do you have some plan we havent already tried? What?

What was the last thing Israel tried, that you are referring to? Shelling empty fields in Gaza?

But what would you propose is what I'm asking.

[Duchifas]

superskippy wrote: Duchifas wrote: superskippy wrote: Duchifas what would you propose for such a crushing defeat? Do you have some plan we havent already tried? What?

What was the last thing Israel tried, that you are referring to? Shelling empty fields in Gaza?

But what would you propose is what I'm asking.

Well, to be fair, you asked me for something that you haven't already tried. So, logically, that means we first have to establish what you have tried, and then proceed from there. ;)

Anyway, one idea to try for a while is Homat Magen. It worked rather well for some time in West Bank. I think it, among other measures, needs to make a regular and consistent appearance in Palestinian territories.

Another idea is to reoccupy Philadelphi corridor to control what and who comes into Gaza. They have smuggled tons of weapons in already. It would be better to prevent that.

Take much more effort to destroy their communication and education infrastructure, because every day that it functions is another day that the young generation gets indoctrinated in hatred.



Will it be cheap and easy? No. But then again, there are no cheap and easy ways to extricate Israel out of the mess it chose to get itself into.

[superskippy]

Quote: Well, to be fair, you asked me for something that you haven't already tried. So, logically, that means we first have to establish what you have tried, and then proceed from there.

Oh for once give me a break, please! :lol:

Quote: Anyway, one idea to try for a while is Homat Magen. It worked rather well for some time in West Bank. I think it, among other measures, needs to make a regular and consistent appearance in Palestinian territories.

So you would suggest constant incursions into the territories to root out the militant groups and put a punch to their abilities?

Quote: Another idea is to reoccupy Philadelphi corridor to control what and who comes into Gaza. They have smuggled tons of weapons in already. It would be better to prevent that.

Perhaps, but as you have stated their main weapon the Qassams they have made on their own and have their own production line.

[Duchifas]

superskippy wrote: Quote: Anyway, one idea to try for a while is Homat Magen. It worked rather well for some time in West Bank. I think it, among other measures, needs to make a regular and consistent appearance in Palestinian territories.

So you would suggest constant incursions into the territories to root out the militant groups and put a punch to their abilities?

Yes. For a while. See how it goes. Then reassess.

Quote: Quote: Another idea is to reoccupy Philadelphi corridor to control what and who comes into Gaza. They have smuggled tons of weapons in already. It would be better to prevent that.

Perhaps, but as you have stated their main weapon the Qassams they have made on their own and have their own production line.

Well, need to ensure that they don't get any more katyushas, guns, ammo, rpgs, etc.

[SpartanPhalanx]

Duchifas wrote: superskippy wrote: Thats why we're in Lebanon and taking over their bases, and they arent?

No, that's why their facilities are mostly underground (courtesy of Barak's withdrawal) and you can barely get to them, while a million of Israelis have their lives paralyzed for two weeks already.


Awww....poor dears....Tzipi and Shlomo can't go for their morning swim anymore because those big bad Hezbollah guys don't like us so we have to go to the basement for a while...

Try telling that to the family of seven wiped out by an IDF Air strike two days ago or to the families of the almost 400 CIVILIANS (which Israel doesn't target what a sick joke that is)....or the over 650,000 IDP's in Lebanon....or the 150.000 refugees in Syria.

So Dutchy, when are you getting off your fat ass and heading to your glorious homeland to defend Tzipi and Shlomo??

[superskippy]

We dont target civilians Spartan, it doesnt even make mathimatical sense. Out of all of our highly accurate munitions we have fired some 15,000 rounds at least of bombs, artillary shells, and missiles. Out of all of that we have some 350 Lebanese dead, lets assume that at least 300 of them are civilians. Now look at the facts, after 15,000 outgoing rounds we have 300 civilian dead for the civilians we are supposed to be targetting? It just doesnt make sense Spartan.

[Kane]

I've got to give it to him...

People talk about how the entire country is leveled and then argue about the extremely high death toll attainable only through direct targeting of civilians...

Had Israel directly targeted Civilians there wouldn't be any left to leave Beirut let alone Southern Lebanon. I still think 400 deaths is far too many but considering the amount of weapons used thus far it's still somewhat of a miracle...

What will really show face is how the potential Humanitarian crisis is handled...

[Muslima]

cap'n queasy wrote: If the Arab portion of the world supports Hezbollah they are going to end up like southern Lebanon.

That's all there is to it.

never assume things on your own....

[Muslima]

Kane wrote: I don't think the Arabs like the Persians too much...

exactly.......