Political Crossfire Forums

[Green]

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Since this is a large paper, I will crop out the imortant parts.


Quote: Big deal. If gas prices get high, I’ll just drive less. Why should I give a damn?"


Because petrochemicals are key components to much more than just the gas in your car. As geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer points out in his article entitled, "Eating Fossil Fuels," approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every 1 calorie of food eaten in the US.

The size of this ratio stems from the fact that every step of modern food production is fossil fuel and petrochemical powered:

1. Pesticides are made from oil;

2. Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is
made from natural gas, which will peak about 10 years
after oil peaks;

3. With the exception of a few experimental prototypes, all
farming implements such as tractors and trailers are
constructed and powered using oil;

4. Food storage systems such as refrigerators are
manufactured in oil-powered plants, distributed across
oil-powered transportation networks and usually run on
electricity, which most often comes from natural gas or
coal;

5. In the US, the average piece of food is transported
almost 1,500 miles before it gets to your plate. In
Canada, the average piece of food is transported 5,000
miles from where it is produced to where it is consumed.

In short, people gobble oil like two-legged SUVs.

It's not just transportation and agriculture that are entirely dependent on abundant, cheap oil. Modern medicine, water distribution, and national defense are each entirely powered by oil and petroleum derived chemicals.

In addition to transportation, food, water, and modern medicine, mass quantities of oil are required for all plastics, all computers and all high-tech devices.

Some specific examples may help illustrate the degree to which our technological base is dependent on fossil fuels:

1. The construction of an average car consumes the energy
equivalent of approximately 20 barrels of oil , which
equates to 840 gallons, of oil. Ultimately, the
construction of a car will consume an amount of fossil
fuels equivalent to twice the car’s final weight.

2. The production of one gram of microchips consumes 630
grams of fossil fuels. According to the American Chemical
Society, the construction of single 32 megabyte DRAM
chip requires 3.5 pounds of fossil fuels in addition to 70.5
pounds of water.

3. The construction of the average desktop computer
consumes ten times its weight in fossil fuels.

4. The Environmental Literacy Council tells us that due to
the "purity and sophistication of materials (needed for) a
microchip, . . . the energy used in producing nine or ten
computers is enough to produce an automobile."

When considering the role of oil in the production of modern technology, remember that most alternative systems of energy — including solar panels/solar-nanotechnology, windmills, hydrogen fuel cells, biodiesel production facilities, nuclear power plants, etc. — rely on sophisticated technology.

In fact, all electrical devices make use of silver, copper, and/or platinum, each of which is discovered, extracted, transported, and fashioned using oil-powered machinery. For instance, in his book, The Lean Years: Politics of Scarcity, author Richard J. Barnet writes:

To produce a ton of copper requires 112 million BTU's or the
equivalent of 17.8 barrels of oil. The energy cost component
of aluminum is twenty times higher.

Nuclear energy requires uranium, which is also discovered, extracted, and transported using oil-powered machinery.

Most of the feedstock (soybeans, corn) for biofuels such as biodiesel and ethanol are grown using the high-tech, oil-powered industrial methods of agriculture described above.

In short, the so called "alternatives" to oil are actually "derivatives" of oil. Without an abundant and reliable supply of oil, we have no way of scaling these alternatives to the degree necessary to power the modern world.

Quote: "Can't We Just Explore More for Oil?"


Global oil discovery peaked in 1962 and has declined to virtually nothing in the past few years. We now consume 6 barrels of oil for every barrel we find.


Quote:

The good news is that we have a massive amount of untapped "non conventional" oil located in the oil sands up in Canada.

The bad news is that, unlike conventional sources of oil, oil derived from these oil sands is extremely financially and energetically intensive to extract. Whereas conventional oil has enjoyed a rate of "energy return on energy invested" (EROEI) of about 30 to 1, the oil sands rate of return hovers around 1.5 to 1.

This means that we would have to expend 20 times as much energy to generate the same amount of oil from the oil sands as we do from conventional sources of oil.

Where to find such a huge amount of capital is largely a moot point because, even with massive improvements in extraction technology, the oil sands in Canada are projected to only produce a paltry 2.2 million barrels per day by 2015. This doesn't even account for any unexpected production decreases or cost overruns, both of which have been endemic to many of the oil sands projects.

More optimistic reports anticipate 4 million barrels per day of oil coming from the oil sands by 2020. Even if the optimists are correct, 4 million barrels per day much oil when you consider our colossal and ever-growing demand in conjunction with the small amount of time we have left before the global peak:

1.We currently need 83.5 million barrels per day.

2.We are projected to need 120 million barrels per day
by 2020.

3.We will be losing over 1 million barrels per day of
production per year, every year, once we hit the
backside of the global oil production curve.

4.The general consensus among now disinterested
scientists is that oil production will peak by 2010 at
the latest.



Quote: Solar and wind power suffer from four fundamental physical shortcomings that prevent them from ever being able to replace more than a tiny fraction of the energy we get from oil: lack of energy density, inappropriateness as transportation fuels, energy intermittency, and inability to scale.

I. Lack of Energy Density/Inability to Scale:

Few people realize how much energy is concentrated in even a small amount of oil or gas. A barrel of oil contains the energy-equivalent of almost 25,000 hours of human labor. A single gallon of gasoline contains the energy-equivalent of 500 hours of human labor. Most people are stunned to find this out, even after confirming the accuracy of the numbers for themselves, but it makes sense when you think about it. It only takes one gallon of gasoline to propel a three ton SUV 10 miles in 10 minutes. How long would it take you to push a three ton SUV 10 miles?

Most people drastically overestimate the density and scalability of solar, wind, and other renewables. Some examples should help illustrate the limited capacity of these energy sources as compared to fossil fuels:

1.According to author Paul Driessen, it would take all of
1.California's 13,000 wind turbines to generate as much
1.electricity as a single 555-megawatt natural gas fired
1.power plant.

1.According to the European Wind Energy Association's
3.Wind Force 12 report issued in May of 2004, the
3.United States has 6,361 megawatts of installed wind
3.energy. This means that if every wind turbine in the
3.United States was spinning at peak capacity, all at the
3.exact same time, their combined electrical output
3.would equal that of six coal fired power plants. Since 3.wind turbines typically operate at about 30% of their 3.rated capacity, the combined output of every wind
3.turbine in the US is actually equal to less than two
3.coal fired power plants.

1.The numbers for solar are ever poorer. For instance,
1.on 191 of his book The End of Oil: On the Edge of a
1.Perilous New World, author Paul Roberts writes:

" . . . if you add up all the solar photovoltaic cells now
running worldwide (2004), the combined output -
around 2,000 megawatts - barely rivals the output of
two coal-fired power plants."

2.Robert's calculation assumes the solar cells are
2.operating at 100% of their capacity. In the real world, 2.the average solar cell operates at about 20% of its
2.rated capacity. This means that the combined output
2.of all the solar cells in the world is equal to less than
2.40% of the output of a single coal fired power plant.

2.According to ExxonMobil, the amount of energy
4.distributed by a single gas station in a single day is
4.equivalent to the amount of energy that would be
4.produced by four Manhattan sized city blocks of solar
4.equipment.
4.
4.With 17,000 gas stations just in the United States,
4.you don't need to be a mathematician to realize that 4.solar power is incapable of meeting our urgent need for 4.a new energy source that - like oil - is dense,
4.affordable, and transportable.

3.According to Dr. David Goodstien, professor of physics 5.at Cal Tech University, it would take close to 220,000 5.square kilometers of solar panels to power the global
5.economy via solar power. This may sound like a
5.marginally manageable number until you realize that
5.the total acreage covered by solar panels in the entire 5.world right now is a paltry 10 square kilometers.

4.According a recent MSNBC article entitled, "Solar
7.Power City Offers 20 Years of Lessons:"

By industry estimates, up to 20,000 solar electricity
units and 100,000 heaters have been installed in the
United States — diminutive numbers compared to the
country’s 70 million single-family houses.

This means that even if the number of American
households equipped with solar electricity is increased
by a factor of 100, less than two million American
households will be equipped with solar electric
7.systems. Assuming we are even capable of scaling the
7.use of household solar electric systems by that huge a
7. factor, we must ask ourselves two questions:

A.What do the other 68 million households do?
AA. What about the millions of companies, nations,
and industries around the world on which we in
the industrialized world are dependent?

B.Since oil, not electricity, is our primary
transportation fuel (providing the base for over
90% of all transportation fuel) what good will
this do us when it comes to keeping our global
network of cars,trucks, airplanes, and boats
going?



I thought that we were going to be ok, but now I am worried.

[The Grandmaster]

I'm at work, and wasn't able to read your whole article, but it is of great interest to me, and I'm reading it later. However, I voted yes. I believe were to to wake up tomorrow, and find there were no longer any oil, it would be catastrophic, and life as we know it would stop. There would be a collapse.

[George W Bush]

i think i can side with President Bush when he says we are addicted to oil.

without it, were doomed.

[perdidochas]

George W Bush wrote: i think i can side with President Bush when he says we are addicted to oil.

without it, were doomed.

However, the oil isn't going to dry up overnight. We can make almost everything from other sources than petroleum, just not as cheaply or easily.

[George W Bush]

perdidochas wrote: George W Bush wrote: i think i can side with President Bush when he says we are addicted to oil.

without it, were doomed.

However, the oil isn't going to dry up overnight. We can make almost everything from other sources than petroleum, just not as cheaply or easily.

yup. thats why i'm not panicking. except when i fill my tank. but, thats something to get used to.

[Demonic Spoon]

If we woke up tomorrow without oil? Yeah, it would be really bad...but that wouldn't happen.

Just like it would be catastrophic if the people in the Middle-Ages developed nukes overnight.

Firstly, you don't account for undiscovered/untapped oil sources...

Secondly, even if we would run out of oil in 10 years, or even 5, we'd be fine.

[Spider]

The running out will be gradual, so a crisis I kinda doubt. We will be weened off onto new sources slowly.

The oil that is cheapest to get outa the ground is running out as we speak...there is still a huge amount of oil, its just gonna cost a lot more to produce it...and if oil is no longer cheap, then why shouldn't we use more expensive alternative fuels?

We'll get by. Everything will just cost a lot more

[The Grandmaster]

Demonic Spoon wrote:
Secondly, even if we would run out of oil in 10 years, or even 5, we'd be fine.

Really. How do you figure that?

[eynon]

as mentioned before we're not going to run out of oil over night....cheap oil may be getting less plentiful, but we still have a few decades worth of the juice. My state alone(Colorado) has over 700 billion gallons of shale oil, it's not as cheap to get at, but we still can get at it.

[micfranklin]

Eventually we will run out of oil and when that happens the corporations are going to cry like babies.

[eynon]

micfranklin wrote: Eventually we will run out of oil and when that happens the corporations are going to cry like babies.

some will, others will make fortunes.....choose wisely.

[Green]

Demonic Spoon wrote: Firstly, you don't account for undiscovered/untapped oil sources...

Secondly, even if we would run out of oil in 10 years, or even 5, we'd be fine.

A. We haven't found any untapped oil resources. The essay talks about this.

b. We are not going to use pick up alternate resources overnight.

I think we are getting the consensus that the average standard of living for most industrialized countries will fall because of the OA (oil addiction).

[cap'n queasy]

I think running out of oil may be beneficial for the human race.

[Green]

George W Bush wrote: i think i can side with President Bush when he says we are addicted to oil.

without it, were doomed.

please speak in the first person

[spearsy23]

better question, if we run out of fat people will society collapse? How much money did mcdonalds earn last year?

[Wyatt Earp]

cap'n queasy wrote: I think running out of oil may be beneficial for the human race. \n

Yea, we would not have any more fat people, they would be walking or peddling bikes

You know what I am sick of, I go to McDonald's almost anywhere in the USA and the drive through line is like 10 cars long, I go in the restaurant and no one is waiting in line and yet everyone is griping about the gas prices.

How come we don't eliminated Baseball, Basket ball, Football, Hockey, car racing, how much gas is wasted to those/going too those sporting events?

How come they don't lower the speed limit like they did in the 70's?

Bush and company don't care one bit about this.

[The Z]

The first week there would be rioting in the streets, mobs complaining that they can't get anywhere. The second week people would realize that they have feet.

[antonio62]

Demonic Spoon wrote: IFirstly, you don't account for undiscovered/untapped oil sources...

There aren't many of those left. There are probably no major sources of oil that haven't been discovered.

We would have a major hit but we would recover and change over. The worlds now waking up to the fact that oil is going to get really expensive and may run out. We wont just run out. What will happen is more like oil becomes to expensive for most people to afford and to expensive to be used in industry. As this happens we will gradually move from oil and gas to other forms of energy.

Americans will have a huge problem if they don't change a few things soon. They wont be able to get around. There is no real mass transit system in America and everyone is spread out even in the city's everything is spread out. If oil becomes to expensive people wont be able to drive and will struggle to get around. That will be a huge problem in the future and one that needs to be seen to now.

[Eternal]

Those countries and regions that plan ahead will do well. Those that don't will suffer.


Cheers, Eternal

[The Grandmaster]

The Z wrote: The first week there would be rioting in the streets, mobs complaining that they can't get anywhere. The second week people would realize that they have feet.

Which won't do them any good, because coming to this realization will give them a practical range of about 2-3 miles at best. Try getting 200,000,000 people to work, school, needed things for life, and leisure with that each day.