Political Crossfire Forums

[poweRob]

perdidochas wrote: poweRob wrote: ieatfood wrote: social wrote: ieatfood wrote: oil will never run out

Do you have any idea of how oil is formed?

Oil is going to run out because it is not being produced as fast as we are consuming it. Period.

oil will never run out because there is more than enough oil in the earth for human needs

That being said, should we continue to rely on oil as much as we currently are?

probably not. Personally, I'm waiting on solar. It's slowly but surely coming in to it's own. In 20 yrs, most of us will be producing electricity via solar roof panels.

There are great incentives for doing it now but I agree. Decrease individual demand through efficiencies then decentralize the power production by grid-tieing houses. Solar production during the day has people selling energy during peak hours and using energy during off-peak. Still costs a pretty penny to do so but I salivate over the opportunity.

[perdidochas]

poweRob wrote: perdidochas wrote: poweRob wrote: ieatfood wrote: social wrote: ieatfood wrote: oil will never run out

Do you have any idea of how oil is formed?

Oil is going to run out because it is not being produced as fast as we are consuming it. Period.

oil will never run out because there is more than enough oil in the earth for human needs

That being said, should we continue to rely on oil as much as we currently are?

probably not. Personally, I'm waiting on solar. It's slowly but surely coming in to it's own. In 20 yrs, most of us will be producing electricity via solar roof panels.

There are great incentives for doing it now but I agree. Decrease individual demand through efficiencies then decentralize the power production by grid-tieing houses. Solar production during the day has people selling energy during peak hours and using energy during off-peak. Still costs a pretty penny to do so but I salivate over the opportunity.

It's still a little too expensive, at least by Gulf Power's fairly low electric prices. Currently, solar would cost about 8 times the kwh. When that gets to about 2 or 3, it will be worthwhile.

[DarkMerlin]

ieatfood wrote: social wrote:

Since these oil fields haven't yet been discovered, the only accurate thing you can say about them is that they might exist, that it is probable that they exist. Nothing more, nothing less.

given the experience of oil exploration in Saudi arabia and around the world, given the amount of unexplored oil fields, and given the amount of new technology that's soon to become available, I'think it's pretty safe to say that oil will never run out.

Define "never"...

[Selfish_Meme]

ieatfood wrote:

you really don't understand the situation at all
the reason why oil production is low is not because oil is becoming more scarce--that is a common misconception
in fact, we know that oil is not becoming more scarce--why? because it isn't becoming harder to find oil. The price of exploration, and building oil wells is not rising. So what has caused oil exploration to decrease? The answer: the low price of oil over the past few years. We think of oil prices as being real high right now, but not too long ago, it was quite low. And when prices are low, it doesn't make economic sense for oil companies to invest all the money to explore, build and extract more oil. The same thing is true of refining capacity--why would you build more refineries if the price of oil is low? You wouldn't. Thus, the US has not built any new refineries in a while. If I were to make a chart of new refineries built, it would look a lot like that chart of new oil exploration (that people falsely use as "evidence" of oil scarcity). We would see that refinery building peaked a couple of decades ago and is very low today. Does that mean we are running out of refineries in the world? Of course not, just like it doesn't mean that we are running out of oil.

Now that oil prices are high, oil exploration will increase. However, it takes a few years for new oil wells to become operational. Thus, we will continue to see high oil prices in the near future.

I think its you who doesn't understand, of course no more refineries get built if oil is not being discovered. You build more refineries to process more oil and if oil usage is going up and has been for decades, you should be building mre refineries, unless there is no more oil to process. The US doesn't want to be dependant on islamic fundamentalists for oil yet where are the discoveries that would free them? The reason is there is no more oil to be found in Mainland USA. What oil there is is running out.

[perdidochas]

Selfish_Meme wrote: ieatfood wrote:

you really don't understand the situation at all
the reason why oil production is low is not because oil is becoming more scarce--that is a common misconception
in fact, we know that oil is not becoming more scarce--why? because it isn't becoming harder to find oil. The price of exploration, and building oil wells is not rising. So what has caused oil exploration to decrease? The answer: the low price of oil over the past few years. We think of oil prices as being real high right now, but not too long ago, it was quite low. And when prices are low, it doesn't make economic sense for oil companies to invest all the money to explore, build and extract more oil. The same thing is true of refining capacity--why would you build more refineries if the price of oil is low? You wouldn't. Thus, the US has not built any new refineries in a while. If I were to make a chart of new refineries built, it would look a lot like that chart of new oil exploration (that people falsely use as "evidence" of oil scarcity). We would see that refinery building peaked a couple of decades ago and is very low today. Does that mean we are running out of refineries in the world? Of course not, just like it doesn't mean that we are running out of oil.

Now that oil prices are high, oil exploration will increase. However, it takes a few years for new oil wells to become operational. Thus, we will continue to see high oil prices in the near future.

I think its you who doesn't understand, of course no more refineries get built if oil is not being discovered. You build more refineries to process more oil and if oil usage is going up and has been for decades, you should be building mre refineries, unless there is no more oil to process. The US doesn't want to be dependant on islamic fundamentalists for oil yet where are the discoveries that would free them? The reason is there is no more oil to be found in Mainland USA. What oil there is is running out.

My theory is that there's a lot more oil in America than the oil companies let out. They would rather pump and sell fairly cheap Middle Eastern oil for now. Then when oil gets more expensive, start pumping American oil at much more of a profit, all the while they are figuring out how to get their part of the new alternative sources that will provide us energy in the future.

[mathurin]

i personally think our best bet for near future renewable power would be hydroelectric, it is 100% proven to work, is currently working very well, i should start a post on this

for future i think fusion power, but thats to experimental to be for certain yet
tried and true damning a valley for power, puts nature to work, when you think about it it is also harnessing solar, since the sun evaorates the water to make the rain that......

you get the picture

[Free Thinkr]

mathurin wrote: i personally think our best bet for near future renewable power would be hydroelectric, it is 100% proven to work, is currently working very well, i should start a post on this

for future i think fusion power, but thats to experimental to be for certain yet
tried and true damning a valley for power, puts nature to work, when you think about it it is also harnessing solar, since the sun evaorates the water to make the rain that......

you get the picture
Hydroelectric is the bomb.

[poweRob]

perdidochas wrote: poweRob wrote: perdidochas wrote: poweRob wrote: ieatfood wrote: social wrote: ieatfood wrote: oil will never run out

Do you have any idea of how oil is formed?

Oil is going to run out because it is not being produced as fast as we are consuming it. Period.

oil will never run out because there is more than enough oil in the earth for human needs

That being said, should we continue to rely on oil as much as we currently are?

probably not. Personally, I'm waiting on solar. It's slowly but surely coming in to it's own. In 20 yrs, most of us will be producing electricity via solar roof panels.

There are great incentives for doing it now but I agree. Decrease individual demand through efficiencies then decentralize the power production by grid-tieing houses. Solar production during the day has people selling energy during peak hours and using energy during off-peak. Still costs a pretty penny to do so but I salivate over the opportunity.

It's still a little too expensive, at least by Gulf Power's fairly low electric prices. Currently, solar would cost about 8 times the kwh. When that gets to about 2 or 3, it will be worthwhile.

A decent system should pay for itself within the decade and usually in 5 years.

Here's the benefits for your state... Just scroll down (almost all the way) to the US map and click on your state. Usually your electric company will pay for half of it in reimbursements while you get a little more back in tax breaks.

http://www.alpinesurvival.com/grid-tie_solar-power-systems.html

[poweRob]

mathurin wrote: i personally think our best bet for near future renewable power would be hydroelectric, it is 100% proven to work, is currently working very well, i should start a post on this

for future i think fusion power, but thats to experimental to be for certain yet
tried and true damning a valley for power, puts nature to work, when you think about it it is also harnessing solar, since the sun evaorates the water to make the rain that......

you get the picture

Costa Rica is whose got it going on:

Quote: Costa Rica now uses 99.2% renewable and sustainable energy. While the country receives less than 0.5% of its energy from wind energy, that amount is quickly increasing, as wind is the world's fastest growing energy resource. (http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/SciTech/DyeHard/windfarms_dyehard_031231-2.html)

Costa Rica generates its electricity with 49.4% hydroenergy, 35.7% geothermal, 7.9% cane products, 3.2% sustainable residential timber, 2.2% sustainable biomass, 0.5% wind and solar, 0.3% sustainable vegetal carb, and 0.1% sustainable industrial timber. The non-sustainable and renewable portion of the country's energy comes from non-sustainable biomass (0.6%) and from oil (0.2%).

Linkypoo...

Electricity - exports: 115 million kWh (2003)
Electricity - imports: 50 million kWh (2003)
linkypoo2...

Our Northwest territory here in the U.S. is VERY renewable energy reliant thanks to Hydro.

[bob.appleyard]

perdidochas wrote: Why would the oil companies want us to think there's plenty of oil? It makes no sense. It's better for them to get us to think oil's scarce, and keep us at this threshold where oil is cheap enough to keep away alternatives, and expensive enough to maximize profits.

Because if lots of people thought that cheap oil was a thing of the past, there wqould be an exodus from oil, whereas if most people just thought it was the companies being evil, they'd keep on buying the oil (because there's still a future in it). Looking at the way oil companies are behaving, though, that picture fades fairly rapidly.

[ieatfood]

DarkMerlin wrote: ieatfood wrote: social wrote:

Since these oil fields haven't yet been discovered, the only accurate thing you can say about them is that they might exist, that it is probable that they exist. Nothing more, nothing less.

given the experience of oil exploration in Saudi arabia and around the world, given the amount of unexplored oil fields, and given the amount of new technology that's soon to become available, I'think it's pretty safe to say that oil will never run out.

Define "never"...

pigs will fly before we run out of oil

in the words of outkast--oil will be here forever,
Forever?, forever, ever?, forever, ever?

one day, new technology will replace oil, just as oil replaced coal
that will be the day that we stop using oil

[ieatfood]

Selfish_Meme wrote:

I think its you who doesn't understand, of course no more refineries get built if oil is not being discovered. You build more refineries to process more oil and if oil usage is going up and has been for decades, you should be building mre refineries, unless there is no more oil to process. The US doesn't want to be dependant on islamic fundamentalists for oil yet where are the discoveries that would free them? The reason is there is no more oil to be found in Mainland USA. What oil there is is running out.

uh no
firstly, you're just wrong--world oil output has increased by 25% since 1980. Yet, no refineries have been built since then.
Secondly, big oil companies are the ones who decide whether or not to build refineries. And big oil cares only about one thing--profit.
if there's profit to be made, they will build it
if there's no profit to be made, they will not
In an environment where the prices are both unstable and low, the profit margins of a new refinery would be slim to none. There's even a great risk that they could take a loss. Therefore, there's no incentive to increase refining capacity. Actually increasing refining capacity would further drive down low gas prices, which would further decrease profit margins.

thirdly, the US is not dependent on middle eastern oil and the amount of oil in the US itself is irrelevant. The US imports and drills oil based on the world price. Thus, it wouldnt affect the US if saudi arabia suddenly decided to export only to china. As long as the world price doesnt change, the US would still pay the same price.

that's the economics behind it.
if you refuse to accept that, then that's your problem
but that's how the economy works

[ieatfood]

Think of oil like milk in a refrigerator.
The amount of proven reserves is analogous to milk that's in your refrigerator
When you explore for more oil, it is like going to the supermarket to buy more milk.
Of course, if you have enough milk, you have no reason to goto the supermarket.

Thus this is the scenario with oil:
In the mid 1900's, we did a lot of exploration
That's like stocking our fridge with lots of milk
Since then, exploration has tapered, not because the supermarket ran out of milk, but rather because we have enough milk in the fridge so we don't need to goto the supermarket.

of course, oil doesnt spoil like milk does....

[Selfish_Meme]

hehe, you are so full of it, refineries havn't been built yes, because GASOLINE PRODUCTION costs were low, facing the cost of imports, which have risen 10%, while US gasoline production has fallen 10%. It's cheaper to import it than to build a new refinery.

Also no-one has been able to get a permit to build a refinery in the last 3 decades even though they have been trying, because of environmental concerns. It is just now with higher prices that refineries are becoming lucrative again. To get past the environmentalists Bush is trying to get old military bases reserved for refineries.

This does not have anything to do with the availability of Oil, as long as there is more of it than we can use right now, then the fluctuations in the market will drive it's price. If the US stopped getting oil from overseas though, you would run out in a few years. Watch this space.

http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=12227

[Selfish_Meme]

http://www.econlib.org/library/ENC/NaturalResources.html

I apologise for being wrong. I was doing some research and I was actually investigating copper prices as I knew that it made up a tiny fraction of the worlds minerals. It's usage was obviously rising as technology developed and I was unsurprised that we use more than ever. Because of it's scarcity it's price should have risen very high. But it hasn't in fact it has dropped steadily over the last 30 years only recently peaking again because of political instability in the mining areas. The above link shows some figures that people may not be aware of and explains well why the price of oil is so cheap, yet it is a non-renewable resource.

The short explanation is that the same technology that uses the resources also provides for getting better at finding and exploiting what is there so there is a total loss, but at an ever decreasing rate. We use more oil then we know about but we are getting better at finding it and exploiting it, we also get better at using it. The price (or pollution) will drive the technological change away from oil, probably well before it runs out.

[perdidochas]

Free Thinkr wrote: mathurin wrote: i personally think our best bet for near future renewable power would be hydroelectric, it is 100% proven to work, is currently working very well, i should start a post on this

for future i think fusion power, but thats to experimental to be for certain yet
tried and true damning a valley for power, puts nature to work, when you think about it it is also harnessing solar, since the sun evaorates the water to make the rain that......

you get the picture
Hydroelectric is the bomb.

America has almost no major rivers left that haven't been dammed for hydroelectric. Also, IMHO, hydroelectric is about the most environmentally damaging of alternative energies. Lakes and rivers are two totally different ecosystems. We have enough lakes, we don't have enough wild rivers (heck we have almost NO wild rivers left). I'd much rather see nuclear energy become widespread than hydroelectric.

[Selfish_Meme]

perdidochas wrote:

America has almost no major rivers left that haven't been dammed for hydroelectric. Also, IMHO, hydroelectric is about the most environmentally damaging of alternative energies. Lakes and rivers are two totally different ecosystems. We have enough lakes, we don't have enough wild rivers (heck we have almost NO wild rivers left). I'd much rather see nuclear energy become widespread than hydroelectric.

plus hydroelectric can't even come close to meeting all our energy needs

[ieatfood]

Selfish_Meme wrote: http://www.econlib.org/library/ENC/NaturalResources.html

I apologise for being wrong. I was doing some research and I was actually investigating copper prices as I knew that it made up a tiny fraction of the worlds minerals. It's usage was obviously rising as technology developed and I was unsurprised that we use more than ever. Because of it's scarcity it's price should have risen very high. But it hasn't in fact it has dropped steadily over the last 30 years only recently peaking again because of political instability in the mining areas. The above link shows some figures that people may not be aware of and explains well why the price of oil is so cheap, yet it is a non-renewable resource.

The short explanation is that the same technology that uses the resources also provides for getting better at finding and exploiting what is there so there is a total loss, but at an ever decreasing rate. We use more oil then we know about but we are getting better at finding it and exploiting it, we also get better at using it. The price (or pollution) will drive the technological change away from oil, probably well before it runs out.

now you got it.
if you want an excellent resource more relevant to oil, check here: http://mit.edu/ceepr/www/R2004-171.pdf

[poweRob]

Selfish_Meme wrote: perdidochas wrote:

America has almost no major rivers left that haven't been dammed for hydroelectric. Also, IMHO, hydroelectric is about the most environmentally damaging of alternative energies. Lakes and rivers are two totally different ecosystems. We have enough lakes, we don't have enough wild rivers (heck we have almost NO wild rivers left). I'd much rather see nuclear energy become widespread than hydroelectric.

plus hydroelectric can't even come close to meeting all our energy needs

Of course wishing and thinking that any ONE thing could or should meet all our energy needs is close minded thinking and a dangerous infrastructure.

[mathurin]

how much power that comes from it i dont know, but it powers las vegas and alot of canada, no small thing, and they are still making lakes in my area, mostly for water storage, why not slap a small turbine on the overflow tube or some such thing