Political Crossfire Forums

[thundertaker]

What would have happened if the French had won the Franco-Prussian war? Would the Balance of power as designed by the Congress of Vienna have been maintained? Would WWI have happened, but with the British fighting with the Germans against the French?

[antonio62]

The Balance of power could have been maintained without Prussia winning wars against many nations the war on France just made the power balance swing more in the favour of Germany. The balance of power had already been removed by the Austro-Prussian war and the other wars successfully undertaken by Prussia.

Britain may well have allied with Germany. We were close to allying ourselves with them but decided against it because of the Naval arms race and their expanding economy which was competing with us in markets all over the world. I would still guess WW! would have happened because the alliance system would still be in place and the tensions in the Balkans would still be there which I think of as the two main reasons for the outbreak of war. It would be likely France and Russia would be defeated quickly if Britain had sided with the Central Powers and I would guess the Italians would have stayed with the Central powers. There is no way France and Russia could have held out long against that kind of alliance.

[sherborne]

thundertaker wrote: What would have happened if the French had won the Franco-Prussian war? Would the Balance of power as designed by the Congress of Vienna have been maintained? Would WWI have happened, but with the British fighting with the Germans against the French?

Bit of a red herring this one. Its pointless debating whether France could have won the Franco Prussian war because France was doomed to lose it. Furthermore, if France had won, then the political equilibreum would have been maintained so it is more likley that we would have had war somewhere in Africa rather than on mainland europe. I think by 1870, France had conceded defeat in that it had to play second fiddle to Britain as the boss. Also, we propbably wouldnt have an EU, and the first WW would have been fought over the uniting of Germany; something that Britain probabaly wouldnt have got involved in. So therefore it wouldnt have been a WW.

[thundertaker]

I don't neccessarily think the French were doomed to lose it. They had initial superiority in numbers and experiance, if they had attacked early on via the south, they could have persuaded the Austrians onto their side and won allies amongst the Southern Catholic German states sucha as Bavaria (Remember Napoleon III was the guarantor of Papal independence) who resented Prussian domination of the German Confederation. They squandered their advantage by playing defensively....

[Bobicito]

France could have won but you can say that about anyone at any time in every war.

The Germans could have won WW2 but they didn't.

The British could have won the American Revolution but they didn't.

Moreover France did not win and its history.

[thorn]

well, if the Prussians had lost this war Germany would have not been united at the time. France would have gotten an even bigger influence over the German principalities outside of Prussia and I guess at some point there would have been a war in between the people in these principalities and the French, with the people being supported by the Prussian King. Don't forget that the people of the German principalities were vehemently against the French hegemony, they wanted a liberal (classical sense) and free German state. So if the French would have won the war they would have still not won security or defeated the idea of a united Germany. there would have been another war for a unified Germany.

Austria, after having lost against Prussia earlier, had not too much of an interest in supporting the French at all. They had their own problems internally as well as on their Southern and Eastern borders. Austria would have never played a role, their monarchy was a rotten apple and too weak to participate in a war. They might have tried to usurp power over some of the Southern German principalities in case the French won, but the Bavarian King would have had a hard time with that, getting surrounded by Austria.[ Bavaria would have asked Prussia for help, the Brits wouldn't like a bigger Austria either (Balance of Power!), the French would have been unhappy, and so on.]

[Bobicito]

Thats a very accurate post even though thats not exactly how history played out.But otherwise I think that was a pretty good analysis of waht would have happened had Prussia lost this war.