Political Crossfire Forums

[Joseph G]

It is no secret that China will most likely invade Taiwan by the end of the decade. Some analysts say that it may very well be on the eve of the 2008 summer olympics in Beijing. We have made no formal commitment to protect Taiwan should China invade, but should we? We seem to be known around the world as the "defender of democracy" and we will come to the aid of any other nation that needs it.

I don't think we should get involved in it unless China becomes more of a threat to us because of the invasion. Sure, China is no USSR, but they've got some nukes that could hit Alaska, Guam, and Hawaii. And, they have recently been building up their Navy with amphibious landing craft for crossing the Taiwan strait and purchasing Russian destroyers. Can you image how difficult it would be to invade a country with over a billion inhabitants -- all of whom may fight against you. Are we really willing to risk millions of lives all for the well-being of a nation that has no ties what so ever...that might even turn out to be communist? I sure hope not.

[abraham_liu]

Just one question: If you are from Taiwan, do you still think you are a Chinese descendant? I think that's the most crucial question when settling our problem.

[antonio62]

Taiwan is part of China. It’s actually a rouge state left over from the end of the civil war. So America defiantly shouldn't get involved. It would also wreck the world economy which I'm sure no one wants to see.

[LandOfHypocrisy]

China would be wise to steer clear of messing with Taiwan. They risk creating major problems and getting egg on their face.

The legistics of moving a sufficient occupying force to Taiwan are pretty extensive. It would not be that hard to thwart an initial invasion. Taiwan already has this capacity.

Without violence, China is acheiving most of it's goals regarding Taiwan. Business ties between the two countries are growing rapidly to the point where currently 50% of Taiwanese businesses have operations in mainland China. This is predicted to grow even more.

Taiwan speaks Mandarin, so Taiwan is unlikely to pose and cultural oppositions to Mainland China unifying under the Mandarin language.

China's military is hard pressed to justify it's usefulness. With out a recent war, they risk downsizing, or at the very least poor public support. If only an internal organization, they risk being regarded as oppressive. (...As they would be if they harmed Taiwan.)

But a military always needs an enemy, or at least a potential one. And Taiwan, as the refuge of Chinese Nationals under Chiang Kai-shek will always serve to be their attention graber to remind people of the Revolution.

Will China invade Taiwan? ...Doubtful. If they do, it wouldn't be that hard to foil. If China's smart, they will let the natural reunification happen that is bound to with such similar cultural unity.

[TwinkieDP]

LandOfHypocrisy wrote: ......But a military always needs an enemy, or at least a potential one. And Taiwan, as the refuge of Chinese Nationals under Chiang Kai-shek will always serve to be their attention graber to remind people of the Revolution. Good Point! Hardliners within China likes to make Taiwan out to be a Deputy Sheriff of the U.S., kinda like Israel in the Middle East.

Quote: Will China invade Taiwan? ...Doubtful. If they do, it wouldn't be that hard to foil. If China's smart, they will let the natural reunification happen that is bound to with such similar cultural unity. Exactly how I feel about this whole situation. Any talk about invasion of Taiwan is just "sabre rattling"...

[Chow440104]

LandOfHypocrisy wrote: China's military is hard pressed to justify it's usefulness. With out a recent war, they risk downsizing,
It serves as a symbol of pride, and the Communists love to dig up old war stories to keep the people nationalistic. I think a war with Taiwan is less an issue to the Chinese military than it is to the leaders of the State.

Quote: Will China invade Taiwan? ...Doubtful.
Definitely. In Taiwanese politics there is this thing called the "Lee Deng Hui effect" where whenever the Mainland government says something bad about pro-independence politicians, support for those politicians would go up, so it is in the Chinese government's best interest to just shut up about Taiwan and let the Taiwanese people that care of themselves

[mr_FOBolous]

plus Taiwan is more pro reunification now. a recent election in Taiwan saw the opposing pro reunification party (the KMT) getting major gains. The election was overwhelmingly in the oppositions favor and many are saying that the KMT is likely to win the next presidential election sooo yeeea...it would be illogical and unreasonable for China to invade Taiwan with the KMT regaining control of the government.

[Dhammalover]

its all about pluses and minuses. Every year the Chinese get richer and richer. The richer they get the farther they slide from their Socialist roots. The sweet taste of the good life has put a zap on the revolutionary mind of the Chinese. They drift deeper into the ether that is Capitolism, stoned on the rat race. They are not stupid, they have tasted that sweet icing and they dont want to go back to day old bread. Does anybody realize the amont of money it will cost them? Embargos/most favored trading partner/sanctions money money money you think they dont like those fat whips their pushin all those pretty new skyscrapers, big boats, good booze, fine woman on their arm? Their economy is screaming ahead faster than speed freak on a good rail. The longer they wait, the fatter they get. The fatter they get the lazier they get toward things like "reunification of China."
Pahlease, Formosans arent even native Chinese. This is about the final defeat of Chiang Kai Shek. This is purely and simply symbolism and all that symbolism stuff does not fit neatly in to the Capitolist world of the bottom line. You see, Capitolism is like Heroin. Once you get it in your veins, its hard to get out of your mind. Just think, it all started with a little McDonalds Hamburger and a Coke. Where is your little red book now Mr Mao? :wink:

[napoleonv]

Does China really need Taiwan at the moment?
China is an economic giant, it is growing faster than ever before.
Of course, to have Taiwan as an addition would boost its economy even more, but I find that threatening Taiwan with military power is quite unnecessary.

People say Taiwan is a rogue-state of China.
I do not think this is true.
After World War 1, the Austria-Hungary empire was torn apart to many separate countries:
Hungary, Romania, Croatia, etc.
Austria was left with a tiny portion of its previous form, much smaller than many of those that became independent.
Does Austria say that the other nations are rogue states and vice versa? I believe not.

Isn't this the same case as China and Taiwan?
The communists broke off from the Chiang Kai Shek's rule and forced him and his followers into Taiwan. Wouldn't China be "Hungary, Romania, Croatia, etc." and Taiwan "Austria"? It is unreasonable to think that Taiwan was ever once part of the China of communism.

China could just say they're invading Taiwan, but that doesn't really make sense. The more they emphasize that Taiwan is a rogue-state and military force would be required should its independence occur, the more outraged the population of Taiwan would be, creating more of an obstacle for China to gain Taiwan. Nowadays, many of Taiwan's business has to do with China and increasing reliance is inevitable. Shouldn't China just let Taiwan be for the moment untill Taiwan realises it has no choice but to follow China? China should know better than just threatening Taiwan.

[antonio62]

That’s a different thing Austria was broken apart after being defeated in a war and forced to. Taiwan broke away during a civil war. If Austria had the strength they wouldn't have been broken apart and if they had been they would have invaded afterwards. Sort of happened in a way it was called WW2.

[gordon1]

i think America better stay out of this one. all though i don't think we will. America has can be to generous in helping countries like south Vietnam. so i think we will end up helping them but we will not bennifit from it. At all.

[wlorilyn]

China will defiantly not invade Taiwan within the next decade for several reasons.

First, Beijing's most recent conclusion about Taiwan is that they would rather prevent independence then seek unification.

Currently, both sides want to maintain the status quo.

Also, China knows that if they invaded Taiwan, the U.S. would surely get involved. And, China also realizes that to achieve their economic, they must keep good relations with the U.S. Resultly, China is currently more interested in keeping up their current economic growth rather then invading Taiwan.

My professor for my class on China wrote an excellent article in the journal "Foriegn Affairs", the March/April 2005 issue, Vol 84 number 2

[Rilzic]

I agree with most people here.

Sorry Joseph G, i mean no offence when I say that you need to be better educated on the subject. almost all your facts are wrong or minor.