Political Crossfire Forums

[Demothenes]

Now the really odd things. Where the hell are Russia and China in this Iraqi thing, anyway? Two of the world's most powerful countries have almost nothing to say about one of the world's largest producers of oil? I think not. Russia is understandable, they are against almost anything the US does, whether publically announced or in private, but what about China?

The world's most populated country has nothing to do with it? They don't need the oil? It is possible that they don't care about who is in charge of the oil, but don't they see what's happening to us? Don't they realize that it will affect their economy too. If the benefactors of the petrolium industry can inflict this much ecomonic disruption here, what is stopping them from using the same tactics for fiscal enhancement on other countries as well?

Surely China has someone who has thought of this, and if they haven't shot them for out-thinking the politicians, they must have listened to him. Are they so naive and self-confident as to believe that they are immune? No one is that stupid, at least not in geo-politics. I ask the simple question, why are they not helping us ensure a rest to global economics? Or are they so stupid that they think we are trying to disable them by increasing the prices of vital resources. In which case, expect an insurance measure by them or one of their more stable allies. Possibly N. Korea.

After the major effects of the Warsaw Pact faded away, Russia has been almost in hiding. They take place in almost no political discussions involving the world, and they shy away from the greater portions of any war. Why? I understand that they are still a little unstable from the fall of their lifestyle, but shouldn't a proud people like the Russians want to regain former power? Plus, they need oil, too. You can't convince me that they ride bikes or walk in a climate like that.

I am confused. If you have opinions, please post them. I would like to have a discussion on this most troubling subject.

[Chingu]

Demothenese wrote: Now the really odd things. Where the hell are Russia and China in this Iraqi thing, anyway? Two of the world's most powerful countries have almost nothing to say about one of the world's largest producers of oil? I think not. Russia is understandable, they are against almost anything the US does, whether publically announced or in private, but what about China?

The world's most populated country has nothing to do with it? They don't need the oil? It is possible that they don't care about who is in charge of the oil, but don't they see what's happening to us? Don't they realize that it will affect their economy too. If the benefactors of the petrolium industry can inflict this much ecomonic disruption here, what is stopping them from using the same tactics for fiscal enhancement on other countries as well?

Surely China has someone who has thought of this, and if they haven't shot them for out-thinking the politicians, they must have listened to him. Are they so naive and self-confident as to believe that they are immune? No one is that stupid, at least not in geo-politics. I ask the simple question, why are they not helping us ensure a rest to global economics? Or are they so stupid that they think we are trying to disable them by increasing the prices of vital resources. In which case, expect an insurance measure by them or one of their more stable allies. Possibly N. Korea.

After the major effects of the Warsaw Pact faded away, Russia has been almost in hiding. They take place in almost no political discussions involving the world, and they shy away from the greater portions of any war. Why? I understand that they are still a little unstable from the fall of their lifestyle, but shouldn't a proud people like the Russians want to regain former power? Plus, they need oil, too. You can't convince me that they ride bikes or walk in a climate like that.

I am confused. If you have opinions, please post them. I would like to have a discussion on this most troubling subject.

Well, Russia took it's stance - I am confident - becasue they have significant problems of their own in Chechneya and they've been unable to stabalize that region for quite some time - and, they were a major part of the lucrative oil contracts Saddam was handing out - and they were busily profiteering off the corrupt oil for food program. They didn't want to expose themselves as the corrupt nation they are - nor did they want to cut off such a vast money inflow.

In China's case, I believe that they have stayed clear of the frey becasue they know deep down that what we are doing will benefit them as well. China has a relatively open market and the more nations that become wealthy and open - the more imbalance in tradethey can create - LOL - they're not stupid - they know they can ship Iraq a billion plastic thingies a day in exchange for oil - once the markets are stable and open.

[Demothenes]

In Russia, I realize that, but I just wanted another opinion, I thought maybe I as wrong.

In China, I think that may be the case, but I really don't trust their government to believe that 'shipping little plastic thingies' will work. They have the tendency to protect their interests with unfounded reasons. Look at Korea/Vietman. They protected an ally in an invasion that incurred the US military. Granted, they proved their might, but at what cost? :?

[Brit123]

Just wanted to butt in...

Russia is a complete mess....despite appearing powerful on the world stage their economy is non-existant. Putin said he hoped to have the GDP of PORTUGAL in 15 years time - its difficult to comprehend how far they have fallen in terms of being a superpower only 20 odd years ago. They only are powerful due to their substantial nuclear arsenal and their regional ties with countries in their area- and so the importance in the war on terror.

China on the onther hand, i really dont have much of an idea on why they're so quiet. Probably quite happy to sit quietly whilst their economy booms, rather than sabre rattle with washington. Its pretty clear they oppose any form of intervention though, and are very jumpy about infringing soverereignty of other nations. normally they just abstain and let the US get on with whatever they're doing, the quid-pro-quo being that the USA tends to do the same in return. She tends not to have aspirations on a global scale and is happy with her increasing regional influence in asia.

[Demothenes]

Brit123 wrote: Just wanted to butt in...

Well, that's pretty much why we're all here, feel free at any time.

[WinstonSmith2+2=4]

I believe china has its own problems, and recently hasn’t really cared either way. Not only is it happy to sit back and have its economy boom but it just signed a large oil and gas deal with Uzbekistan. In addition all its efforts in “International” affairs are focusing on the rouge Chinese province of Taiwan.

[Bone]

China and Russia are currently conducting meetings with regards to what is happening in the world right now, their own little G-8, if you will. This is not sarcasm, I read it in the news.
So, if you're like me in anyway, you will wonder what it is they are talking about, because this meeting is very exclusive and no US media is allowed to partake.

[Demothenes]

I hadn't heard that . . .

Disturbing indeed . . .

[WinstonSmith2+2=4]

Yes, China and Russia are in a meeting. And I think I know why. Because in less than thirty days 7 United States carriers are going to be performing military maneuvers within striking distance of mainland China. All to “Protect” Taiwan from possible martial law, So China and Russia are in a meeting to decide if china should place Martial Law on its rebellious province, or let America get there before China can make any headway and/or Taiwan declares independence.

if this is not what is going on, i offically apologize to both China and Russia

[Demothenes]

That makes sense. You're right. China has to be worried about losing Taiwan. But why is Russia there? I'd think that they would like to avoid any anti-American movements at the moment. I mean, the Cold War is just now easing up, even if it ended already. They most likely distrust America, but to openly oppose them, that can't be good geopolitically. Their economy couldn't stand another depression. Plus, they don't have the USSR countries anymore.

I'd be more worried about something like an alliance. Two of the worlds most combative countries, in a coalition that will inevitably be anti-American. That's a more terrifying thought than Taiwan in martial law.

[Brit123]

To be fair it wouldnt suprise me one bit that the Chinese and Russians would have a get together once in a while, especially when you consider they share probably the longest border in the world.

I wouldnt say its disturbing, just common sense. I mean the US has cosy little diplomatic chats throughout the world and so do most other nations, and of course self interest is top of the agenda. The enormous power that the US wields, and the institutions that it attends are of as great importance to us. We're in the situation where because the US is the sole hegemon, other nations must club together (eg Iraq) to make a stand.

Quote: I'd be more worried about something like an alliance. Two of the worlds most combative countries, in a coalition that will inevitably be anti-American. That's a more terrifying thought than Taiwan in martial law.

Not my own opinion (the US is obviously v important for global security and my shared values);
however you could argue that in fact the US is a very combative country. If you look at the history of its interventions, it has always projected its power whenever and wherever it has felt it necessary. If we stand back, perhaps it is important to have a geo-political counterweight to keep US power in check. Only force (and not institutions) can restrain the USAs use of force. The "war on terror" gives the white house an unprecedented freedom of action (how long's a piece of string and what does it look like?!) and has demonstrated that you can sell a self interested war to the voting public. (eg awarding of reconstruction contracts and securing energy supplies)

Anyway theres my rant[/code]

[Demothenes]

I completely agree. We are a combative country, which is why I find the thought of a China-Russia alliance scary. I don't trust our government to stand by and let that happen.

[Brit123]

Not to be apocalyptic, but i think that the realisation by the Neo-cons that the USA will not be at the top of the pile forever is what drive US foreign policy today. Everyone goes on about it, but Chinas GDP will exceed that of the USAs in 25 years by some estimates, and currently has a $100bn trade surplus with the US, and the EU is economically a larger power than america.

Long cycle theory says that whenever there is a shift in global power, theres a big war.

The US is trying to avoid that by spreading its ideas as quickly as possibe, and building her military up further.

You're probably right, the US wouldnt stand back nicely, but having said that there isnt the stomach there for large casualties any more. And luckily for us, Russias a mess, and Chinas army is tacky. We're ok for the forseeable future i rekon, so long as everyones happy making money via trade....

[Demothenes]

No. China's army is not as good as it could be, but it has the potential for immense numbers, they have their own (plus N. Korea's) nukes, and a history of winning wars due to quantity, not quality. The only people to actually bring them down were the Kahns, and the Chinese merely assimilated them into their society, really no big change. As far as Russia goes, I don't think that they told us everything. Do you really think that a big nation like that doesn't have a few hidden secrets?

[Brit123]

I ve said this before when posting but Russia cut its military budget recently "in order to achieve the GDP of Portugal in 15 years"! LOL, Portugal are a tacky country in any case, and russia's huge.
I know what you mean, for instance russia reduced its nukes to below 2000 with bush recently. (i mean 2000, just shows you how dumb the cold war was!!!) But they have no conceivable reason to attack america, and the same goes for China. It would be a fruitless and suicidal war, and noone wants that.
Taiwan is a potential flashpoint i accept, but i really doubt it would escalate....i dont think itll be the new Cuban missile crisis.
Any secrets that Russia have i'm sure MI6/CIA have got covered, and besides, the US can far outspend Russia on research.

But yeh, they're two massive countries with huge potential, so we'd be stupid not to be trying to guess whats over the horizon. Again i'm sure our intelligence community's got them sussed. (mind you, after Iraq that might be misplaced!)

[Demothenes]

Let's hope. The CIA and MI6 are both greatly powerful agencies, but not infalible. They're not perfect, just really really smart. Maybe that's enough, maybe it's not.

Maybe I sound as Russophobic as my namesake, but I only hope that I'm wrong sometimes.

[Bone]

It's normal to fear what one cannot understand. I am with you, I hope you're wrong as well........

[JIredell]

China has to be worried about losing Taiwan. Demo ??? when has China ever had Taiwan? The royal family ran there in exile and created their own successful nation, but im not here to give a history lesson. I have to voice my opinion that at least the US is acting on Taiwans behalf but i doubt the chinese will provoke america. Dont even talk about nuclear weapons, that is the last thing neone but a fanatic religious third world country like Iraq under the control of a crazed leader like Saddam would consider. If China ever wanted to fall and lose all of its allies it would use a nuke but im doubting that will happen for many decades

[Demothenes]

I'm merely saying that in a world like today, if something in Taiwan escalates, I fear the always stubborn Chinese government will outdo themselves on the egotism scale. I know it's not likely, and I'm probably wrong (I hope I'm wrong) but there are no definites as of yet. I don't trust humanity to care about the morals of war. The Geneva conventions aren't as strong as they once were. I know I can't back this up. It's just a very scary thought I've been having. There is always the possibility of nuclear war. I'm just making sure that people are aware of that.

[JIredell]

thanks for the awareness, youve spent to many times reading orson scotts books. We dont have an IF because we dont have the power to stop nukes from being set off, but if one nation decides say china, im willing to bet my life that every other nation will rise to destory china and it will fall very easily. I dont know the position of chinas troops but they wont risk it. But is that what you want, a nuclear warhead set off so the nations will have a reason to rise up like they did in Orson Scott's books. When the nation sets off a nuke there will be world unity and everyone will set their resources to getting a seat in this new league