Political Crossfire Forums

[Demothenes]

Look, I like Card, but I'm just saying it's possible. Trying to guess how a war (cold or active) will go is impossible. I just can't bring myself to trust any government fully. Not even ours. I trust them to not get us all killed. That's about it. Anyway, I'm not saying that I think China is going to attack with nukes, I'm just saying that it's possible, no matter how improbable. Again, I hope it never happens.

[JIredell]

Ok i know your right its possible, and maybe we need that to happen, like when japan attacked pearl harbor, it will awak the rival nations(america) and force them to join in the issues, even though i dont like the idea of the death of so many but im just another person prepared to gain more power wherever it comes from, if that means starting a war then yes.

[JIredell]

Heres a link thats a video clip of a meeting btwn Rice and China, where China says they will attack if Taiwan declares independance.
[url]javascript:rs("videoWin","http://news.yahoo.com/p/v?u=/ap_av/20040709/av_ap_wl/f414e86c8fd52e9e2702a3c45767b7b9&cid=452&f=53746348",650,450);
[/url]

[Truth_is_Right]

Several topics here..

Dont know anything about russia so I have no clue why arent they in on iraq. But for China, why would any country send troops to Iraq when US will completely fund the war is a puzzle for me. I think someone mentioned this also and I completely agree, if you can sit back and wait until the war ends and then collect the benefits wouldn't you. Besides who would want to get into that mess when the only thing you can gain are enemies. That being said, I fully support the war based on the fact that Saddam is truely an evil man.

China/Taiwan/US relations..
Some of you may not realize, but China fully believes that they own Taiwan. They practically if not actually teach everyone from their youth that Taiwan belongs to China. As for history, the island belong to China when the Nationalist party (not the royal family) ran to Taiwan after they lost the civil war to the communist.

So, some of you have said that China would not force an issue with Taiwan as long as US is backing them. I actually think it is quite the opposite. If China insist on reclaiming Taiwan by force, I don't think US will do anything to stop it. There is much to lose and little to gain by assisting Taiwan. 1) Taiwan is not the economy it was 10 years ago. It's a dying economy were most of their business have fled to China where they have cheaper labor. 2) Taiwan is a stone throw away from China, how much and for how long can US afford to assist Taiwan. For instance.. China doesn't need to physically invade Taiwan, all it has to do is setup blockades preventing imports going into Taiwan. How long can Taiwan last under these situations. 3) China is the way of the future. It is by far the country with the greatest potential. If you are a business how can you not want to expand into a 1.3 billion (population) market.

And what is there to gain?? With great dissension among the Japanese regarding the US military, US needs a place for them to have a military influence in Asia.

Is it really worth it especially if China is extremely passionate about it.

[Demothenes]

For the most part, you make sense. However, I disagree with your statement that China has the greater potential. Sure, they have a greater domestic ability, but this is the age of global trade and interdependence. The introverted, although self-sufficient, China is the way of the past. They are powerful and economically stable, but they are not stronger fiscally than the alliances and trade organizations of the world today. China's monopolizing economic style has no place in today's world of diversitized prosperity. China has a 1.3 billion population, but that's nothing compared to NATO and/or the UN. Numbers don't really matter here. The true objectives to modern economies are the security and stability of alliances with other strong nations, bonding and reenforcing thier own economic power. China trades, but only enough to maintain itself. China has potential, but it is not enough to equal the US or it's allies.

[Truth_is_Right]

My point is that China has greatest potential compared to countries outside of US. I'm taking this view as an American so we can't trade with ourselves. The potential I am talking about is who can we trade with that will be most beneficial to us. We look at China and we see a less developed country with a gang load of ppl. If we can sell them technological inferior products to just 1% of the population that's already a lot of sales.


In terms of world power I believe that the EU is a force to be reckon with also, but it is still debatable whether the EU, US, or China has a greater potential. If you look at history no one country stays strong forever. Who knows it might be Germany. (I believe that Germany has the highest GDP of all of EU)

[Demothenes]

Sorry, I just forgot about the EU. :oops:

Anyway, I agree, but I doubt China should be on that list, seeing that most of the other powerful countries are in coalitions and alliances. A single country, no matter how populated, can never compare to an alliance of superpowers.

[Truth_is_Right]

Yeah the alliances.. Haha.. Thats why China talking to Russia right.. HaHa.. Who knows where world power will shift to... For all I know I could be dead.

[Josh]

Russia

The reason Russia is not in Iraq is because their economic condition, their relations with Iran, and they have their own problems in the southern portion of the country.

I wouldn't call what Russia has going on in country as martial law, but I would say they are keeping a close eye on internal stability with a military arm.

[cap'n queasy]

Brit123 wrote: I ve said this before when posting but Russia cut its military budget recently "in order to achieve the GDP of Portugal in 15 years"! LOL, Portugal are a tacky country in any case, and russia's huge.
I know what you mean, for instance russia reduced its nukes to below 2000 with bush recently. (i mean 2000, just shows you how dumb the cold war was!!!) But they have no conceivable reason to attack america, and the same goes for China. It would be a fruitless and suicidal war, and noone wants that.
Taiwan is a potential flashpoint i accept, but i really doubt it would escalate....i dont think itll be the new Cuban missile crisis.
Any secrets that Russia have i'm sure MI6/CIA have got covered, and besides, the US can far outspend Russia on research.

But yeh, they're two massive countries with huge potential, so we'd be stupid not to be trying to guess whats over the horizon. Again i'm sure our intelligence community's got them sussed. (mind you, after Iraq that might be misplaced!)

We've invited 40,000 Russian troops to Afghanistan. China is going to sit back and build while while the West and Middle East expend their resources.

[Josh]

There is more to our relationships with China and Russia than who's got the biggest gun or the smallest secret. So far, ya'll are only beating war drums that aren't even there. :roll:

But, both Russia and China want the same thing. They want the prestige of being developed countries. What you're calling "a threat" is just their potential to become first world countries. It's just about having favorable trade conditions and living in nice houses; it's not about taking down the West.

[Brit123]

cap'n queasy wrote: We've invited 40,000 Russian troops to Afghanistan. China is going to sit back and build while while the West and Middle East expend their resources.

But the west aren't expanding their resources as such. We're opening markets. Its not as if we will have direct control of the oil in Iraq, we're just making it possible to trade with Iraq without a crazy leader bent on WMD aquisition in charge. China can buy the oil just like france/USA/UK can. We're securing, not stealing Iraqi oil suppies (rightly or wrongly). If Saudi was to have a crisis, the world would suffer....including China

[Demothenes]

He said expending, not expanding.

[S.O.G.]

Russia

I read through the thread and was really surprised about how little Russian situation and thinking is known here.

First, the question why Russian is not interested in holding Iraqi oil is simple: Russia has just surpassed Saudi Arabia as the largest oil producer and exporter. Russia has oil.

Second, the war in Iraq and the instability of the whole region have boosted oil prices signifficantly. Russian oil companies stand to gain huge profits as does Russian state. This is very important for Russian government for oil exports are the main revenue to recreate infrastructure and stabilize the country and take back control of the resources.

Russian government is currently on rolling back American interests on Russian oil:
1. Yukos taxation probe and Khorodovsky arrest came just in time to stop him from selling Yukos AND Sibneft to US&UK oil companies.
2. USA is heavily targeting Baku oil through taking Georgia from Russian sphere of influence. Due to Chechenya Russia is currently not able to react.
3. In Central Asia, Uzbekistan is allied with USA but Turkmenistan with largest resources has signed a treaty to transport their gas and oil via Russia.
4. Russia is in talks with Japan and China to build a direct pipelines from undeveloped Eastern Siberian fields, Shakalin island and Kamchatka. This would reduce Chinese dependence on oil sold in the world markets.

Putin just fired three leading generals from miitary intelligence and army. Reason was not told, but it is suggested he is dissatisfied with the situation in Caucasus region. Expect a heavier hand on Georgia.

[Truth_is_Right]

Hmmm.. thats a very interesting insight of Russia's situation..

[Brit123]

Demothenese wrote: He said expending, not expanding.

Right you are - fair point - i stand corrected!

[JIredell]

Russia doesnt fight for nething but the nationality and their motherland, fighting a battle in the Middle East without the support of the Russian ppl wont work. Did neone else not see that?

[Arena Sphere]

China is smart. A world superpower keeping out of international affairs.