Political Crossfire Forums

[desaview]

BEIJING, March. 7 -- A sharp appreciation of China's yuan was unlikely and the currency would be kept in a small range as the country gradually implemented a more flexible exchange rate, China’s foreign exchange chief said Saturday.

In remarks that gave the clearest sign so far of the degree of currency movement China is planning, Guo Shuqing, director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, ruled out allowing the yuan to freely float.

“Sharp appreciation of the yuan is unlikely,” Guo said.

“It is impossible for us to have a free-floating exchange rate,” he said. “A free-floating exchange rate will bring serious consequences.”

But Guo said China had done much groundwork for reform of the exchange rate system, which now holds the yuan in a tiny range of 8.276 to 8.28 per U.S. dollar.

Guo did not elaborate on how or when China would reform the currency. But his comments were the strongest indication so far that the first step would be small.

“As China is a developing country, the floating range for the yuan exchange rate will definitely be relatively small,” Guo was quoted as saying by the China Securities Journal.

Many analysts say they expect authorities to first slightly widen the slim trading band or repeg the yuan to a basket of currencies instead of just the U.S. dollar.

Guo, in comments first carried in domestic media that he later confirmed to reporters, also said short-term currency changes would not affect the structure of China’s foreign exchange reserves.

http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-03/07/content_2660685.htm


notice how China always prefers to take the low position? it is a developing country, it is a poor country.

notice also USA always takes the high position..USA is great, USA is the best, USA is number 1 .

[Canada_Rocks]

china isnt poor. China is one of the biggest trading partners in the world. I think you watch too many American shows that only show the poor parts of other nations (the chinese slaves, the Indians living in mud huts) How would you like it if the only part of america shown to other countries was Compton.

That yaun or renmindi or whatever you wanna call it is so connected to the US dollar they are almost like siamese twins.
In fact, Chinas purpose for the proposed changing trading currency to the Euro is fueled by the fact that the US dollar is faultering and smeering chinas in the mud with it.

[eynon]

desaview wrote: BEIJING, March. 7 -- A sharp appreciation of China's yuan was unlikely and the currency would be kept in a small range as the country gradually implemented a more flexible exchange rate, China’s foreign exchange chief said Saturday.

In remarks that gave the clearest sign so far of the degree of currency movement China is planning, Guo Shuqing, director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, ruled out allowing the yuan to freely float.

“Sharp appreciation of the yuan is unlikely,” Guo said.

“It is impossible for us to have a free-floating exchange rate,” he said. “A free-floating exchange rate will bring serious consequences.”

But Guo said China had done much groundwork for reform of the exchange rate system, which now holds the yuan in a tiny range of 8.276 to 8.28 per U.S. dollar.

Guo did not elaborate on how or when China would reform the currency. But his comments were the strongest indication so far that the first step would be small.

“As China is a developing country, the floating range for the yuan exchange rate will definitely be relatively small,” Guo was quoted as saying by the China Securities Journal.

Many analysts say they expect authorities to first slightly widen the slim trading band or repeg the yuan to a basket of currencies instead of just the U.S. dollar.

Guo, in comments first carried in domestic media that he later confirmed to reporters, also said short-term currency changes would not affect the structure of China’s foreign exchange reserves.

http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-03/07/content_2660685.htm


notice how China always prefers to take the low position? it is a developing country, it is a poor country.

notice also USA always takes the high position..USA is great, USA is the best, USA is number 1 .

I don't get the little Anti-american rant their at the end there:-|
The Chinese economy is maturing, so should their finacial markets...the little clever ploy of deflating the Yuan to promote an export economy was good for the 80's and 90's, but times have changed.

If the Yuan were allowed to naturally determine it's value instead of being pegged by Beijing then it would be something like 5:1 on the dollar and 6:1 on the Euro....which means my salary goes up 40%!!!(in terms of dollars). Plus it would give be way more fair to the Chinese consumer....not that the goverment gives a flying f**k about the average chinese consumer :evil:

[desaview]

Eynon,

If Mao had died in 1956 he will be immortalised. He died in 1976 but still he is still one of the greatest hero of China ever, if not the greatest. He is the epitome of a Chinese hero- great achievements, struggles, sacrifices, patriotic to the end, writes great poetry. Mistakes were made but those mistakes have given China even stronger foundations. Do not forget China never had KGB style oppression. He came to the world with nothing and left with nothing except his legacies. Without Mao, China will still be in pieces for the world to s**t on.
GW BUsh? He knows s**t about struggles and sacrifices .

[Lagspike]

desaview wrote: Without Mao, China will still be in pieces for the world to s**t on.
No. Without Deng Xiaoping, China will still be in pieces for the world to s**t on.

[desaview]

Lagspike wrote: desaview wrote: Without Mao, China will still be in pieces for the world to s**t on.
No. Without Deng Xiaoping, China will still be in pieces for the world to s**t on.

This is splitting hair.

Also what Deng has done seems obvious and easy enough. I could have done what Deng has done. if I am in his shoes.

But Mao moved against odds. His achievements up to 1956 defies odds.
Even after 1956 even counting the ups and downs, only Mao could have moved China the way he did. No one else can take his shoes.

[eynon]

Lagspike wrote: desaview wrote: Without Mao, China will still be in pieces for the world to s**t on.
No. Without Deng Xiaoping, China will still be in pieces for the world to s**t on.

yeah, ok....Deng "small bottle" was pretty cool. His agricultural reforms were a pretty inspired piece of work, plus the concept of "free-market zones" was also a great idea.

[desaview]

eynon

"free-market zones" was also a great idea.
>>>>>>>>>
This is learning from the great leap forward and the cultural revolution that even with the tremendous energy of China, one should really take one step at a time. gradualism.

[Poon]

desaview are you a full blooded chinese? Where do you currently reside?
I ask this because you almost sounded like a fully indoctrinate communist. I don't mean that as an insult or anything, but you seem to worship Mao.

While I agree that Mao provided the necessary leadership to keep China together, I have to say that the Cultural Revolution, as many people would agree, pretty much set China's development back decades. I see the Cultural Revolution as nothing more than Mao's desparate attempt at maintaining his and the party's hold on the hearts and minds of the masses. He saw an entrenched bureacracy getting more and more influential, and potentially corruptible. The CR was meant to turn this entrenchment upside down. Your opinions on this?

[Poon]

Canada_rocks wrote: china isnt poor. China is one of the biggest trading partners in the world. I think you watch too many American shows that only show the poor parts of other nations (the chinese slaves, the Indians living in mud huts) How would you like it if the only part of america shown to other countries was Compton.

That yaun or renmindi or whatever you wanna call it is so connected to the US dollar they are almost like siamese twins.
In fact, Chinas purpose for the proposed changing trading currency to the Euro is fueled by the fact that the US dollar is faultering and smeering chinas in the mud with it.

Enyon, you live in China, from you're point of view does China seem like a poor country to you? I know you might not have traveled all over the vast country, but draw from your experiences of the places you have been.

[desaview]

Danpt2000 wrote: desaview are you a full blooded chinese? Where do you currently reside?
I ask this because you almost sounded like a fully indoctrinate communist. I don't mean that as an insult or anything, but you seem to worship Mao.

While I agree that Mao provided the necessary leadership to keep China together, I have to say that the Cultural Revolution, as many people would agree, pretty much set China's development back decades. I see the Cultural Revolution as nothing more than Mao's desparate attempt at maintaining his and the party's hold on the hearts and minds of the masses. He saw an entrenched bureacracy getting more and more influential, and potentially corruptible. The CR was meant to turn this entrenchment upside down. Your opinions on this?

I am Chinese stock but I dont even live in China. Throughout most of my life, what you have written is what I know of China. But now thanks to the internet, any one with curiousity can find many opinions on all subjects including China.

I like your curiousity and manners. I will post below a short extract I wrote a few days ago :

"How to improve the lot of the peasants?. If any body can do it, I am confident the team of Hu and Wen are most suitable and are in a pivotal time in China's long history. If they can do it they will in my opinion be the most benevolent Chinese who ever lived. Because China is ready to be changed forever. Mao was forced to humbly admit to Nixon that his only achievement was to change a few street names in Beijing. This is Mao's sad admission that neither the Greap Leap nor the Cultural Revolution achieved their objectives....which really have the interest of the peasants at the heart of Mao's revolutions.

I will take you back to the first unification of China. The reign of Qin Shih Huangdi. The legacy (and the wrong lesson) of that short reign is that the legalists were discredited in China ever since. The rule of law never took centre stage again in Dynastic China, prefering to develop the individual. Confucianism rules supreme in rural peasant society as a way of living. Human relations is the only way to get things done in China. The Taoist thoughts gives the peasants an escape and a way to laugh at themselves, thus the Monkey king. The Buddha and Kuan Yin gives divine hope and compassion to the long suffering peasants.

The validity of the rule of law is never again seriously discussed in China since the fall of the Qin Dynasty. Sun Yat Sun has the right ideas for China but China was not yet ready. Then comes that corrupt Chiang and the Americans and the Japs. Fifty years of chaos and wars means China is totally humbled and impoverished by the time the CCP came to power.

Why did the great hope of the proliterate and peasants, together with their energy and patriotism deliver so little in the first 30 post revolution years? Is it fair to blame Mao?

The CCP came to power as representing the peasants and workers in a class war. The one event that sets the dirction of the New China surely is also the Korean war with the result of the Iron Curtain. In this light, the Great Leaps and Cultural revolution seems natural and unavoidable. We must assume Mao loves the peasants so how come the results are so little.? Mao the revolutionists also believes in the goodness and capability of the peasants. He himself is a peasant. He weapon of choice then becomes the unleashing of the spirit of the peasants by removing them from the bondage of slavery, feudalism and Confucianism. Mao the Taoists, as seen from his love of poetry and his actions, engaged in a class struggle with the borgoise.

On hindsight, all these are futile. Truly the way to release the peasants from the sufferings are prosperity and rule of law. The second and third generation leaders have done well to bring prosperity to parts of China. The momentum in this direction has gathered and now is unstoppable, the minimum critical mass for the chain reaction has been exceeded. All experts are optimistic for China in this regard. A Taoists will say, nature can now takeover and only minimum interference will be best.

Hu is right to have identified the next push is for consumerism to takeover . And more importantly for state planners is how to spread the consumerism and wealth to the peasants and inlands. The coastal areas will take care of itself very naturally. But how to do it?

Earlier I say prosperity and rule of law. While there have been great progress in the the pursue of prosperity same cannot be said of pursue of the rule of law. It is not a simple matter of the centre passing a few laws. I now bring back the start of this article , which is the great debate of the role of legalism and legalists in society.

There is no disagreement among the top leadership that corruption is the opiate of the masses and the cancer of society. Anti corruption campaigns are frequent and tough. How is it that corruption keeps raising its ugly head?

I now turn to extracts from the above article : <<<<<<<But the concept of accusing a party official for the sake of the public interest simply escapes the mindset of the official Chinese system, according to Chinese journalists in Shanghai and Guangzhou - and it certainly will not be part of a new Media Law currently being drafted. As Pu Ziqiang told the Yazhou Zhoukan newspaper last September, "This case can really be treated as the trial of the century, because it is forcing the legal system to come up with a definitive statement: [Do] the news media have the right to criticize the misdeeds of government organizations and officials?">>>>>>>>>>>

and also the following sentences : <<<<<<<Successful urban professionals in both Shanghai and Guangzhou are unanimous: the libel case against Chen and Wu demonstrates how the law, for the party, is an instrument of control, and how, for Chinese society, it should function as a check on the power of party officials, and as a way to protect individual rights. Premier Wen, according to diplomats in Beijing, is a passionate proponent of a Singapore-style neo-authoritarian system for China. There's one enormous difference, though: Singapore may have been a one-party state since Lee Kwan Yew's early days in the 1960s, but government corruption is in essence non-existent>>>>>>>

<<<<<<At the same time the party leadership fears that the primacy of the law will spell a clear and present danger to its power monopoly.>>>>>>>>

So how should Hu Wen proceed and do it in such a way that the Party is not in danger?

First, to the peasants, benefits must be clear, consistent and reliable. No one will trust the courts if the benefits are not clear, consistent and reliable. The old ways of doing things have been entrenched for a long long time. And new ways always brings risks. The party leadership cannot look outside at the West for guidance because there really is no parallel out there. The way ICAC licked corruption is a good model but Hong Kong is a small place. Nevertheless, now is the best time in history. the only instance it can work is that it must be accompanied by prosperity. Better rule of law and prosperity not only gives birth to each other, they work best hand in hand as twins. On the back of rapidly rising prosperity , this is the moment in history to bring back the legalists into China's debates."

[desaview]

Danpt2000 wrote: Canada_rocks wrote: china isnt poor. China is one of the biggest trading partners in the world. I think you watch too many American shows that only show the poor parts of other nations (the chinese slaves, the Indians living in mud huts) How would you like it if the only part of america shown to other countries was Compton.

That yaun or renmindi or whatever you wanna call it is so connected to the US dollar they are almost like siamese twins.
In fact, Chinas purpose for the proposed changing trading currency to the Euro is fueled by the fact that the US dollar is faultering and smeering chinas in the mud with it.

Enyon, you live in China, from you're point of view does China seem like a poor country to you? I know you might not have traveled all over the vast country, but draw from your experiences of the places you have been.

the duality of China is that within mainland China, it is one system two "countries" and in its relations with Taiwan it wants to maintain one country two systems. Chinese as a people are the most easy to govern and yet the most difficult place in the world to govern properly is also China. China is and remains an enigma wrapped in a puzzle especially to non Chinese.

That is why simplistic views of western laymen and politicians will not be accepted and should not be accepted in China or else the country will be plunged into what all Chinese fears most...that is chaos. Any form of interference from Western powers is likely to produce negative results. China will prosper in the 21 Century as long as it can avoid wars, chaos and foreign interference and allow the Chinese to slowly improve themselves in this moment in history.

[Poon]

To desaview:

It seems that according to your article the old ways of doing things has been the protection of the integrity and authority of the Communist Party. Now you seem to be arguing that perhaps putting the rule of law above the Authority of the CCP seems to be the way towards future prosperity. I am a proponent of rule of law. As you said it makes clear to the people what actions will bring benefits to the individual. To me the protection of individual rights and individual property is most important to stamp out corruption.

The old ways tell people that in order to get ahead, you need to have the right interpersonal relationships, or the guanxi. Having the rule of law be paramount is nice and all, but have you ever considered a Two party system? I know that it seems like a western ideal, but I think its worth considering. No one can automatically create a two party system. There needs to be a shift in power structure for that to happen. I look at the rule of law in the same way that one would see the Referee in the game. The Referee should be impartial to either team, but must have the authority to enforce the rules. In this way, perhaps the CCP's authority can be curbed, and a new political party can emerge within China.

True, extra political parties can have undesired effect of dividing the country. But, if we are to have the interests of the people in mind, then they must be given a choice on which political entity to follow. As the Machiaveillian saying goes "Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely". There needs to be a force within China to challenge the CCP, even at the risk of compromising national unity, if the prosperity of the people should progress.

[Canada_Rocks]

Quote: That is why simplistic views of western laymen and politicians will not be accepted and should not be accepted in China or else the country will be plunged into what all Chinese fears most...that is chaos. Any form of interference from Western powers is likely to produce negative results. China will prosper in the 21 Century as long as it can avoid wars, chaos and foreign interference and allow the Chinese to slowly improve themselves in this moment in history


China isnt the vulatile and fragile country that you speak of. China in a way is like India. The people accept the way things are and dont know any different. CHina Avoid Wars? China could invade half the globe and still come out on top. You understand that china is communist. It is improving itslef everyday. they are one. Not a torn country like the US.
In my mind China is the number one super power on the planet.
Who can argue?[/quote]

[desaview]

Danpt,

There is no clamor for two party system in China. It simply will not work. No intellectual in China wants to copy the American two party system. The priority issue is how to defeat corruption and strengthen rule of law.
Market democracy has been introduced and Chinese people thrives on it. Political democracy only means more corruption, division and eventually chaos.
Political plurality operating under the umbrella of the CCP is being introduced step by step. This means putting up a list of candidates for elections which will be greater than the number of posts are being experimented up to provincial level.
China practises meritocracy system. The issue is how to institutionalise it. Singapore has a good sytem that the CCP is keen to copy.

[newton]

Canada_rocks wrote: Quote: That is why simplistic views of western laymen and politicians will not be accepted and should not be accepted in China or else the country will be plunged into what all Chinese fears most...that is chaos. Any form of interference from Western powers is likely to produce negative results. China will prosper in the 21 Century as long as it can avoid wars, chaos and foreign interference and allow the Chinese to slowly improve themselves in this moment in history


China isnt the vulatile and fragile country that you speak of. China in a way is like India. The people accept the way things are and dont know any different. CHina Avoid Wars? China could invade half the globe and still come out on top. You understand that china is communist. It is improving itslef everyday. they are one. Not a torn country like the US.
In my mind China is the number one super power on the planet.
Who can argue? [/quote]

If China can do as you say...then why haven't they? They have over a billion people...the largest freestanding army in the world. That's a helluva lot to compete against. And just because China is a communist nation...doesen't mean it'll come out on top. Look at the Soviet Union. Yeah...China has a strong ass economy whether it wishes to admit it...if ti decided to remove that little peg on the dollar I can assure you that hundreds of American business will shut down. Especially retailers like Wal-Mart. China also lacks alot of military technology that other countries have...and as we all know, technology is one of the most important things in a war. I doubt they will come out on top.

[desaview]

newton,

why is it your brain can only churn out words like weapons, wars, power.

why not peaceful coexistence, peace, commerce, wealth

[Poon]

Eynon81 wrote: Lagspike wrote: desaview wrote: Without Mao, China will still be in pieces for the world to s**t on.
No. Without Deng Xiaoping, China will still be in pieces for the world to s**t on.

yeah, ok....Deng "small bottle" was pretty cool. His agricultural reforms were a pretty inspired piece of work, plus the concept of "free-market zones" was also a great idea.

I keep wondering to myself whether Eynon81 is serious about what he says or is he paying lip service to the Chinese gov't, because he is living in that country. Come on Eynon, we want a more impartial, in depth analysis of China's situation from your point of view.

[desaview]

Danpt,

the more one knows the world, the more one should blunt the rough edges.

[Canada_Rocks]

I think Eynon81 seems pretty well versed in chinese politics and ...he does live there..I think that makes him a double threat, not like us.

The fact is that i have been seeing rabble rousing (by republicans) about china and north korea. Look at Political Crossfire. Every second thread is about the threat of china. So lets put this in prespective..

American Hitlist:

China
North Korea
Iraq
Iran

Maybee Pakistan
Maybe Russia

Like my god. Why dont you just declare war on the entire planet, the sun, god himself (existance permitting). This war mongering and hate needs to stop.

PS China hasnt invaded the world yet becaus enot every world power enjoys killing and war.. SOme enjoy co-existance and -------ECONOMY (ie Trade)--------