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Crazy_Canuck



Joined: 09 Jan 2005
Posts: 208
Location: Vancouver, Canada

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:02 pm    Post subject: Re: Is the sun setting on America?  

[quote="Eonve"][quote="Crazy_Canuck"]1) China and India because of comparitive economic advantage and weight of sheer numbers.[/quote]

a. China and India are not even nearly on the same stage of development. their economies are primarily based on the type of jobs that countries like US prefer to outsource. they've got primarily manual jobs and some manufacturing jobs. i don't think that having calling centers or make t-shirt in a sweatshop makes for good economy.

b. as for their numbers, they are very much meaningless. what good does it do Chinese or Indians if the US can continually bomb them without ever invading? it is not medieval times that we live in when the power of your state has depended on the size of your army and hence the size of your population. in our time superior technology is a much more decisive factor.

[quote]2) Debt and deficit, trade deficit, living on credit.
[/quote]

c. while the twin deficits can potentially be a problem i do not see how they constitute a danger at the present moment. after all, it is the countries that lend money to the US that should be worried about that. they have already given out the goods, but they have not received the money yet. if tomorrow the US will declare bankruptcy, they will suffer much more. i think that as long as they are ready to take pieces of paper in return for SUVs, we are fine.

[quote]What productive advantage is there to be had in the USA which could be leveraged to help pull the capitalist economy out of it?[/quote]

sorry, but this sentence did not make any sense to me. could you reword it to make it more understandable?

[quote]The major holer of US debt is the Chinese, and I dont mean the people I mean the government.[/quote]

d. any credible source to back this up? the last time i have checked we owed the biggest part of our deficit to Japan.

[quote]3) Just like the Romans engaged all the invading hordes? Turned out quite well didn't it.[/quote]

e. for a thousand years it did. to all things eventually comes an end. there is no doubt about it. but i would say that Rome fell more because of an internal weakness, not so much from the outside pressure.

[quote]Oh and when you start pulling troops off one from (North Korea) to put them in another (Mid East) it does tend to make you weaker on the other fronts, hence extended.[/quote]

f. not necessarily. i think it is rather obvious that there is no imminent danger in South Korea. hence why should we waste money on leaving there more troops than it is necessary. on the other hand, middle east is in great need of troops right now and it would be only logical to put them in there. the cold war has ended and there is no point in keeping troops in the same regions of the world (japan, south korea, germany). however new conflicts spring up almost every year. military policy should therefore be flexible enough to reflect the changes on the international arena. the movement of the troops is a sign of wisdom and a prudent policy, not weakness and overextension.

[quote]4) If you dont care much what other think dont be suprised if they start not caring what you think. Hard to pull off trade deals with people who dont trust or like you.[/quote]

g. as i have told you, things change. they do not stay the same. as the president's agenda is changing and as new people come into office, so shall the relations with other nations change over time. it works both ways. besides, the world is governed by pragmatic rather than ideological people. no matter what kind of disagreements they have had with the current president and his administration on some issues will be overcome to reach an agreement on other important issues. in some sense america is still an indispensable power in the world. without the initiative or participation of the US a lot of things will not happen even if other players are in favor of them.[/quote]

Ok this is getting kinda comlicated to follow, but it's a great discussion!

A) You concede that the jobs being exported are the basic jobs ie manufacturing which service the core needs of industrialized nations. And If they are capalbe enough to build their own military hardware and launch a space program it would be prudent to assume that they could modernize their private industry.

B) The numbers things was in reference to the size of their domestic economies. In a nation of 1 billion if say 10% had equizilant buying power of the American middle class then that's alot of people. That is why China is the place to be in terms of business.

C) IF countries start dumping their dollars (a trend which has started) then the USA will be unable to buy the vast amount of goods it imports (the trade deficit). This will impact buying power and make the American market less desirable. Also, when American companies attempt to produce things they will be using the weaker dollar to buy raw materials which are already in demand and thus higher in price. Hence they will have to borrow, but with bad credit borrowing is hard and interest rates are unfavorable.

"What productive advantage is there to be had in the USA which could be leveraged to help pull the capitalist economy out of it?"

This leads to my statement. What native advantage does the US have in terms of the production of any commodity that could offset such a negative situation.

D) I concede the point, Japan does indeed own more overall American debt.

E) And the Us has had it's day in teh sun and now another power will rise. I'm just thinking that they are accelerating the process and perhaps making it more painful than need be.

F) If so why is North Korea part of the axis of evil? Wouldn't it be easier to deal with the North if you had forces there that could react at a moments notice instead of after they invaded the South or whatever. Plus, the redistribution did not make the South Koreans or the Japanese very happy and aren't they the allies that the US is supposed to be supporting?

G) That's a wait and see approach. I'm not much of a gambling mand so to me it seems an awful risk. And lately it seems that the US has been blocking more initiatives than it starts.

Again, this is a great discussion!
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YGB



Joined: 11 Jan 2005
Posts: 139
Location: Santiago

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2005 7:19 pm    Post subject: tomorrow  

Americans greatest weakeness will always be their imponent confidence.
How much is your country going to be able to rule a world that wants to destroy you?

Yoel
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Canada_Rocks



Joined: 07 Jan 2005
Posts: 9012
Location: Vancouver

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2005 7:53 pm    Post subject:  

Timtc - Nice signature :)

"The only nation with an economy that I believe has overtaken the US is China. However, that country is hardly developed" timtc.
China is one country, Are you saying that america will only have to go head to head with one country, add 2 or 3 together and america is no longer that impressive.

Enove, though you post very good posts I find your defences there quite improbable, Not individually. all were key in the destruction of america, you can answer all with a clever comment, but if one doesnt come true, neither does the survival of america.
The survival of a nation is symbiotic, and is quite sensitive to environment. Countries are not tanks, they are more like butterflys.
I think the key fall in america will be millitarily before economicly.

I believe canada and america are quite carbon copies of eachother, people wise, government wise they are very different.

People have this impression that america is this giant force. Did you know america has more crime than china. have you guys considered falling internally. there are millions of variables that are against america.
I blame bush.
Eagle face should have been elected.
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IMPERATOR CAESAR



Joined: 02 Jan 2005
Posts: 61

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2005 10:43 pm    Post subject:  

Canada Rocks,

You said that Canada and America are "carbon copies of each other" so when you say that America is going to collapse then you mean Canada will too. Right
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Crazy_Canuck



Joined: 09 Jan 2005
Posts: 208
Location: Vancouver, Canada

Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2005 12:45 am    Post subject:  

Caeser, he said people wise.

Policy wise I'd say the countries are quite dissimilar.
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Canada_Rocks



Joined: 07 Jan 2005
Posts: 9012
Location: Vancouver

Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2005 2:00 am    Post subject:  

IMPERATOR CAESAR,

"I believe canada and america are quite carbon copies of eachother, people wise, government wise they are very different. "

let me clarify,

Government wise they are very different. To be blunt, Americas government, ie The republicans, are ignorant, supressing, war mongering goofs, no name calling intended and I put it mildly. I replaced a certain word with goofs. :)
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IMPERATOR CAESAR



Joined: 02 Jan 2005
Posts: 61

Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2005 9:50 am    Post subject:  

Canada_rocks wrote: IMPERATOR CAESAR,

"I believe canada and america are quite carbon copies of eachother, people wise, government wise they are very different. "

let me clarify,

Government wise they are very different. To be blunt, Americas government, ie The republicans, are ignorant, supressing, war mongering goofs, no name calling intended and I put it mildly. I replaced a certain word with goofs. :)


The government wise has nothing to do with how long it lasts. Look at all the collapsed empires and countries in history, they collapse because the people are fed up with the way of life in the country, and want to start a new life, or go back to the ways they where before the government.
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neo-Demosthenes



Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Posts: 21

Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2005 3:33 pm    Post subject:  

Salve, Imperator. But I disagree. Do you truly believe the Romans were fed up with their lives ? Do you think that the Romans favored monarchy and republic over their great empire? If you do, then you remain consistant with your above argument.
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Eonve



Joined: 31 Jul 2004
Posts: 754

Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2005 5:15 pm    Post subject: Re: Is the sun setting on America?  

Crazy_Canuck wrote:
Ok this is getting kinda comlicated to follow, but it's a great discussion!

it's getting complicated indeed. i think that if you used the quotes properly and split my posts in your answers into several parts it would be much easier. :-D

Quote: A) You concede that the jobs being exported are the basic jobs ie manufacturing which service the core needs of industrialized nations. And If they are capalbe enough to build their own military hardware and launch a space program it would be prudent to assume that they could modernize their private industry.

a. yes the jobs that are being exported are the jobs that are too expensive to keep in the US. the same holds true for the EU, just so that it is clear that the US is not an exception.

b. yes, they can build up their military and modernize their industry. in theory. but in practice it does not work. most of its military equipment China continues to buy from foreign countries (like Russia). and even though they could modernize their industry it would still lag behind. in the time it takes China to modernize it, the countries like US would push the standard even higher. besides, modernizing their industry would cost them a lot and hence it would not be attractive for corporations to ship overseas better jobs.

Quote: B) The numbers things was in reference to the size of their domestic economies. In a nation of 1 billion if say 10% had equizilant buying power of the American middle class then that's alot of people. That is why China is the place to be in terms of business.

c. but the truth is that there is no 10% that has that equal purchasing power. people are very poor. in order for them to start making more money wages have to go up. if wages go up, what's the point of exporting the jobs there? the jobs will stay at home and the economy will stay strong. the only reason why jobs are going there is because of cheap labor and low working and environmental standards. without improving these, you cannot create a rise in consumption, but improving these will undermine the job market and thus the consumption also. either way your theory does not hold true.

Quote: C) IF countries start dumping their dollars (a trend which has started) then the USA will be unable to buy the vast amount of goods it imports (the trade deficit). This will impact buying power and make the American market less desirable. Also, when American companies attempt to produce things they will be using the weaker dollar to buy raw materials which are already in demand and thus higher in price. Hence they will have to borrow, but with bad credit borrowing is hard and interest rates are unfavorable.

d. but the things is that it is in everyone's interest that dollar stays strong. first and foremost those countries that US owes money to are interested in keeping it strong because if the dollar falls they will get much less money back. that's like if i borrowed a dollar from you in 1900 and returned it yesterday. i doubt that you could buy as much today as you could have a century ago. no one is going to be happy about it. hence if there will be a real danger of drastically devaluing dollar, there will also be a concerted effort by other nation to prevent it. i don't think that anything radical will happen.

Quote: "What productive advantage is there to be had in the USA which could be leveraged to help pull the capitalist economy out of it?"

This leads to my statement. What native advantage does the US have in terms of the production of any commodity that could offset such a negative situation.

e. first of all, i do not see the negative situation you are talking about. second, i do not specialize in any sector of the economy. i cannot tell you exactly what there is. but there is one thing that i would like to point out. you seem to place to big of an emphasis on the production of goods and commodities. you don't seem to take services into account at all. that is a huge imbalance that is likely to lead to false conclusions.

Quote: E) And the Us has had it's day in teh sun and now another power will rise. I'm just thinking that they are accelerating the process and perhaps making it more painful than need be.

f. the only power on the rise is the EU. and power is a friendly one. EU and US can and will peacefully coexist together and pull the strings all over the world. it is the greatest alliance in history and it is very likely to yield even more success in future.

Quote: F) If so why is North Korea part of the axis of evil? Wouldn't it be easier to deal with the North if you had forces there that could react at a moments notice instead of after they invaded the South or whatever. Plus, the redistribution did not make the South Koreans or the Japanese very happy and aren't they the allies that the US is supposed to be supporting?

g. North Korea is considered to be a part of the axis of evil because some retard in DC said so. but that does not make it so. it does not have what it takes to pose any credible threat either to the US or to South Korea or to any other country in the region. whatever forces are left in the South are sufficient to repel any invasion, which by the way is highly unlikely.

h. South Koreans might be a little bit unhappy, but they will get over it. as for Japanese, i have not heard of any negative reaction.

Quote: G) That's a wait and see approach. I'm not much of a gambling mand so to me it seems an awful risk. And lately it seems that the US has been blocking more initiatives than it starts.

i. there is no risk. it's just politics. sometimes things get ugly. but since most of us are rational, practical people we can get over our differences on some issues and cooperate on others. the truth is that we profit so much from each other so breaking the old ties would be insane and no one in the right mind would do it. even the economic consideration and pressure from big business would be enough to avert such a negative outcome. but there is a lot more to it than that.
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thundertaker



Joined: 29 Aug 2004
Posts: 12089
Location: The right side of the Pennines (Lancashire)

Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2005 5:21 pm    Post subject:  

A sound manufacturing base is of vital strategic importance though, It doesn't do to be too reliant on other countries for vital resources and manufactured in say, a time of war.........
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Eonve



Joined: 31 Jul 2004
Posts: 754

Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2005 5:26 pm    Post subject:  

Canada_rocks wrote: Enove, though you post very good posts I find your defences there quite improbable, Not individually. all were key in the destruction of america, you can answer all with a clever comment, but if one doesnt come true, neither does the survival of america.
The survival of a nation is symbiotic, and is quite sensitive to environment. Countries are not tanks, they are more like butterflys.
I think the key fall in america will be millitarily before economicly.

there will be no fall. there will be continual loss of relative power. that however does not mean that America will fade away into nothingness. that just means that there will rise eventually other countries it will compete with. but let me take the example from history.

since 1949 until 1989 there was a war going on. it is called cold war. there were two competing superpowers whose influence permeated every region in the world. it was a time of great antagonism, arms races, economic competition, proxi wars, etc. America has survived that time. it has come out of that struggle victorious. true, it costed a lot, but the victory was worth it.

and here you are trying to tell me that these days when the US has advanced so much further than in those days, a half-peasant country with an exteremely poor population that is very dependent on foreign resources is going to overtake America. now, is not this absurd. get back to me on China in some 30-50 years and may be you will have a better chance of persuading me that there is real danger coming out of there. China has always been and will always be a sick man. it is big and seemingly powerful, but it has never done anything worth mentioning and there is no sign whatsoever that it ever will.

as for the internal weaknesses, true america has many, as any other state. but this is the way it has always been and will always been. there has to be some reform of the system of governance and some new approaches to foreign relations. but there is nothing that this country or some other country has not faced before. tell me, what are those serious internal problems that will bring down the US?
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IMPERATOR CAESAR



Joined: 02 Jan 2005
Posts: 61

Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2005 9:47 pm    Post subject:  

neo-Demosthenes wrote: Salve, Imperator. But I disagree. Do you truly believe the Romans were fed up with their lives ? Do you think that the Romans favored monarchy and republic over their great empire? If you do, then you remain consistant with your above argument.

Keep in mind that the Roman Empire was made up of the Gauls (French) Germans, spanish, turks, eygptains, arabs, ect. They very people who came into Rome to sack it where the Goths, a group who migrated into the Roman Empire and then got Fed up with their new poor way of life and created armies, along with the Gauls, and Huns, and went and destroyed Rome.
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Crazy_Canuck



Joined: 09 Jan 2005
Posts: 208
Location: Vancouver, Canada

Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:58 pm    Post subject: Re: Is the sun setting on America?  

This is my first attempt at complicated things with quotes. If it's all screwed up I apologize in advance.

Eonve wrote: Crazy_Canuck wrote:
Ok this is getting kinda comlicated to follow, but it's a great discussion!

it's getting complicated indeed. i think that if you used the quotes properly and split my posts in your answers into several parts it would be much easier. :-D

Quote: A) You concede that the jobs being exported are the basic jobs ie manufacturing which service the core needs of industrialized nations. And If they are capalbe enough to build their own military hardware and launch a space program it would be prudent to assume that they could modernize their private industry.

a. yes the jobs that are being exported are the jobs that are too expensive to keep in the US. the same holds true for the EU, just so that it is clear that the US is not an exception.

1) But this jus illustrates that other countries have the same weakness.
Europe does have this same problem, which is why I suspect that the EU is soo keen on including the former eastern bloc nations. Cheap and soo n to be Domestic labour.

b. yes, they can build up their military and modernize their industry. in theory. but in practice it does not work. most of its military equipment China continues to buy from foreign countries (like Russia). and even though they could modernize their industry it would still lag behind. in the time it takes China to modernize it, the countries like US would push the standard even higher. besides, modernizing their industry would cost them a lot and hence it would not be attractive for corporations to ship overseas better jobs.

2) But countries have done this in recent history to great success. I'd point to Pre WWII Japan and Russia during WWII.

Quote: B) The numbers things was in reference to the size of their domestic economies. In a nation of 1 billion if say 10% had equizilant buying power of the American middle class then that's alot of people. That is why China is the place to be in terms of business.

c. but the truth is that there is no 10% that has that equal purchasing power. people are very poor. in order for them to start making more money wages have to go up. if wages go up, what's the point of exporting the jobs there? the jobs will stay at home and the economy will stay strong. the only reason why jobs are going there is because of cheap labor and low working and environmental standards. without improving these, you cannot create a rise in consumption, but improving these will undermine the job market and thus the consumption also. either way your theory does not hold true.

3) But if all the basic necessities are produced domestically their relitive buying power is irelivent. What I mean is, what we pay here does not accurately reflect the true cost of production. Prices in their domestic economy would be closer to the actual cost of production (or whatever their local market will bear) and companies that sell there would still be making profit.

Quote: C) IF countries start dumping their dollars (a trend which has started) then the USA will be unable to buy the vast amount of goods it imports (the trade deficit). This will impact buying power and make the American market less desirable. Also, when American companies attempt to produce things they will be using the weaker dollar to buy raw materials which are already in demand and thus higher in price. Hence they will have to borrow, but with bad credit borrowing is hard and interest rates are unfavorable.

d. but the things is that it is in everyone's interest that dollar stays strong. first and foremost those countries that US owes money to are interested in keeping it strong because if the dollar falls they will get much less money back. that's like if i borrowed a dollar from you in 1900 and returned it yesterday. i doubt that you could buy as much today as you could have a century ago. no one is going to be happy about it. hence if there will be a real danger of drastically devaluing dollar, there will also be a concerted effort by other nation to prevent it. i don't think that anything radical will happen.

4) Would you keep lending money to someone who seems less and less able to pay? You dont have to drastically reduce the value of a currency to do harm. The fact that the dollar is falling against all other currencies (acutally the other currencies re rising in response as is gold) which makes it difficult to buy the necessary inputs of production and thus difficult to produce anything.

Quote: "What productive advantage is there to be had in the USA which could be leveraged to help pull the capitalist economy out of it?"

This leads to my statement. What native advantage does the US have in terms of the production of any commodity that could offset such a negative situation.

e. first of all, i do not see the negative situation you are talking about. second, i do not specialize in any sector of the economy. i cannot tell you exactly what there is. but there is one thing that i would like to point out. you seem to place to big of an emphasis on the production of goods and commodities. you don't seem to take services into account at all. that is a huge imbalance that is likely to lead to false conclusions.

Let me give you an example. In Canada we are a net exporter of raw materials and power. Mostly to the US, but as the dollar falls US companies buy less. Big problem? Apparently not. China is now becoming a bigger and bigger segment of our export economy, in fact some economist forcast that in the next decade they may grow to be our biggest export market (assuming they maintain a current 9% growth annually). The Chinese government currently is trying to buy one of the biggest mining conglomerates in Canada which may indicate that they see Canada as an important market in their future as well.

Quote: E) And the Us has had it's day in teh sun and now another power will rise. I'm just thinking that they are accelerating the process and perhaps making it more painful than need be.

f. the only power on the rise is the EU. and power is a friendly one. EU and US can and will peacefully coexist together and pull the strings all over the world. it is the greatest alliance in history and it is very likely to yield even more success in future.

5) No economy in the world is growing as fast as the Chinese economy. No economy in the world is attracting the level of investment as the Chinese. I wouldn't discount them so readily. Remember how Japan suprised the world?

Quote: F) If so why is North Korea part of the axis of evil? Wouldn't it be easier to deal with the North if you had forces there that could react at a moments notice instead of after they invaded the South or whatever. Plus, the redistribution did not make the South Koreans or the Japanese very happy and aren't they the allies that the US is supposed to be supporting?

g. North Korea is considered to be a part of the axis of evil because some retard in DC said so. but that does not make it so. it does not have what it takes to pose any credible threat either to the US or to South Korea or to any other country in the region. whatever forces are left in the South are sufficient to repel any invasion, which by the way is highly unlikely.

6) LOL, we agreee on the crackpot bit. I'll concede the point since you're blowing the faulty 'axis of evil' condition.

h. South Koreans might be a little bit unhappy, but they will get over it. as for Japanese, i have not heard of any negative reaction.

7) The Japanese always get nervous when ever the North Koreans flex their meagre muscle. They fear payback from what they did in WWII.

Quote: G) That's a wait and see approach. I'm not much of a gambling mand so to me it seems an awful risk. And lately it seems that the US has been blocking more initiatives than it starts.

i. there is no risk. it's just politics. sometimes things get ugly. but since most of us are rational, practical people we can get over our differences on some issues and cooperate on others. the truth is that we profit so much from each other so breaking the old ties would be insane and no one in the right mind would do it. even the economic consideration and pressure from big business would be enough to avert such a negative outcome. but there is a lot more to it than that.

But if the potential of making profit in the US goes down so will it's importance int he world.

It would be ironic if the world order the US government trumpeted for the last 50 odd years ends up being their undoing.
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DEFCON 1



Joined: 01 Apr 2004
Posts: 9260
Location: Castillo De Defcon on the Georgia coast

Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2005 11:09 pm    Post subject:  

It's laughable seeing a couple of lefty Canadians talk about the US economy and standing in the world. :lol: :lol: Which basically means theirs because with out us they would be importing taco's to eat..

What's next? They gonna tell us how to build a Navy and Airforce? Disney World?

When we wanna know something form you drunk tepee building arm chair socialist up their, we will ask.
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Eonve



Joined: 31 Jul 2004
Posts: 754

Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 12:11 am    Post subject: Re: Is the sun setting on America?  

Crazy_Canuck wrote: Eonve wrote:
a. yes the jobs that are being exported are the jobs that are too expensive to keep in the US. the same holds true for the EU, just so that it is clear that the US is not an exception.

1) But this jus illustrates that other countries have the same weakness.
Europe does have this same problem, which is why I suspect that the EU is soo keen on including the former eastern bloc nations. Cheap and soo n to be Domestic labour.

1. this illustrates that other countries have the same practices. they ship manual, manufacturing and low paying jobs overseas. this is good both for economy and for consumers. if it was not for that everything we buy would be few times more expensive than it is now.

2. since the new 10 members have joined the EU the same standards apply to them as to the other members. therefore i don't think that the labor there is really cheap. probably it is still cheaper than in the Old Europe, but it's not that big of a difference.

Quote: Quote: b. yes, they can build up their military and modernize their industry. in theory. but in practice it does not work. most of its military equipment China continues to buy from foreign countries (like Russia). and even though they could modernize their industry it would still lag behind. in the time it takes China to modernize it, the countries like US would push the standard even higher. besides, modernizing their industry would cost them a lot and hence it would not be attractive for corporations to ship overseas better jobs.

2) But countries have done this in recent history to great success. I'd point to Pre WWII Japan and Russia during WWII.

3. yes. but you are forgetting how it was done. Japan has grown so much because of the huge investments that US has poured in there and the preferential treatment of Japanese products on the US markets. if it was not for that, Japanese economic miracle might have never happened. Russia's effort at modernization came at a huge price in terms of people and environment. however US has also helped them a lot and they have expropriated a lot of industrial equipment from East Europe and East Germany after the war. however, in couple of years their economy and industry have started to lag behind again. only military industry was able to keep up with the rate of US development.

Quote: 3) But if all the basic necessities are produced domestically their relitive buying power is irelivent. What I mean is, what we pay here does not accurately reflect the true cost of production. Prices in their domestic economy would be closer to the actual cost of production (or whatever their local market will bear) and companies that sell there would still be making profit.

4. but you are still missing the point. wages are low. their incomes are insufficient to provide them with a good domestic market. profits are much lower. at the present moment there is so much more sense to produce in China and than export than to produce and sell it there. besides, a lot of their more advanced industry is largely owned by Western companies anyway.

Quote: 4) Would you keep lending money to someone who seems less and less able to pay? You dont have to drastically reduce the value of a currency to do harm. The fact that the dollar is falling against all other currencies (acutally the other currencies re rising in response as is gold) which makes it difficult to buy the necessary inputs of production and thus difficult to produce anything.

5. again, falling dollar is in no one's interests. if dollar falls, there's going to be a global economic crisis. everyone will suffer. if you remember the crisis of 1997/1998 that has started in South East Asia, you would also remember that it has started from the fall of the Thai currency followed by the fall of Indonesian currency. if the fall of Asia could produce such a global crisis with far-reaching consequence, try to imagine what kind of crisis would the fall of dollar produce.


Quote: Let me give you an example. In Canada we are a net exporter of raw materials and power. Mostly to the US, but as the dollar falls US companies buy less. Big problem? Apparently not. China is now becoming a bigger and bigger segment of our export economy, in fact some economist forcast that in the next decade they may grow to be our biggest export market (assuming they maintain a current 9% growth annually). The Chinese government currently is trying to buy one of the biggest mining conglomerates in Canada which may indicate that they see Canada as an important market in their future as well.

6. so if America because of its problems stops buying stuff from China where is China going to get money to buy stuff from you guys? both the beauty and the danger of the global economy is in its interconnectedness and interdependence. if one of the pillars falls, the rest of the building will fall also. that's why it is in everyone's interest to keep the US economy up and running.

Quote: 5) No economy in the world is growing as fast as the Chinese economy. No economy in the world is attracting the level of investment as the Chinese. I wouldn't discount them so readily. Remember how Japan suprised the world?

7. so? Japan was growing fast once upon a time. did it become superpower? no. while it is true that Chinese growth rates are rather high, it is not likely that they will be able to sustain them for a long time. that's what happened to Japan and other Asian tigers. eventually Chinese economy will stagnate and then go into recession. that's the way it always happens.

Quote: 7) The Japanese always get nervous when ever the North Koreans flex their meagre muscle. They fear payback from what they did in WWII.

8. there is no muscle left in NK. even China does not support them as it used to. everyone should just relax and take it easy. i think that there is going to be a regime change over there pretty soon. everyone seems to be tired of Kim's stupid dictatorship.

Quote: But if the potential of making profit in the US goes down so will it's importance int he world.

9. not everything depends on the economy, even though it is a very important factor. also it is not likely to fall for the reasons outlined in #5 and #6.

Quote: It would be ironic if the world order the US government trumpeted for the last 50 odd years ends up being their undoing.

10. i don't think it will. i think that it is likely that imprudent policies pursued by republican administration might cause the undoing of the current world order. i would say that internal factors are much more important on this stage of the game. if the internal workings of the US political system will fail to produce good governance, we all might go to hell in a hen basket.
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Canada_Rocks



Joined: 07 Jan 2005
Posts: 9012
Location: Vancouver

Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 12:42 am    Post subject:  

"It's laughable seeing a couple of lefty Canadians talk about the US economy and standing in the world. Which basically means theirs because with out us they would be importing taco's to eat..

What's next? They gonna tell us how to build a Navy and Airforce? Disney World?

When we wanna know something form you drunk tepee building arm chair socialist up their, we will ask."
- Defcon 1.
You just proved our idiotic canadian point.
This remineds me of when Carolyn Parrish appeared on CNN to take place in the crossfire forum. She made great points while Carlson, the biggest idiot in the US, just attacted her with pettey untrue canadian steriotypes which only those of the most inbread persuation of the US population believes. We azre dicussing something rational and you dont see any other american name calling. They are debating rationaly. And we are not name calling either. If you are too sensitive to view posts that don't lick americas but and agree with your ignorant ideology, then don't read.
Defcon- If we are stupic teepee builing beaver f*ckers of whatever you said.
Then you are of the small american population that are , Yee ha, my sisters my wife, Pig farming, war mongering, 52 chromosone, FAS rednecks.
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timmtc



Joined: 01 Nov 2004
Posts: 1382
Location: Vancouver Canada

Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 12:51 am    Post subject:  

Parrish got completely sat down if you ask me. Don't even bring her up, nobody in the Liberal party even supports her. She is now an independant, and next election will not even have a seat in the House of Commons. She's an embarassment to the Liberals.
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Canada_Rocks



Joined: 07 Jan 2005
Posts: 9012
Location: Vancouver

Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 1:22 am    Post subject:  

Titmc,
My comment on Parrish was completley relating Defcon 1 and Carlsons obvious ignorant unproductive ramblings, I do not support what she did, I laughed, but did not support it.
This was strickly an observation.
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johnlocke



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 81

Posted: Fri Jan 14, 2005 7:39 pm    Post subject:  

ok guys, let's get things straight

1.America is not dying economically. Th economy is on the rise. There has been a recession since the Clinton years. 9/11 didn't help either. While China is doing well, America is still doing perfectly fine.

2.A loss of international respect comes from pathetic nations like France who won't do anything to help other. Chirac only wants to improve his political career.

3.A fully engaged military also demonstrates how we are doing the right thing by ousting Hussein and the Taliban.

Anyone who thinks America is doomed is a pessimistic idiot who needs to understand the reality of the situation.

(Ironically, the whole argument about the fall of Rome is fine for America right now. Rome lasted for quite a lot longer than the 200 years America has existed.)
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Eonve



Joined: 31 Jul 2004
Posts: 754

Posted: Fri Jan 14, 2005 8:30 pm    Post subject:  

johnlocke wrote: ok guys, let's get things straight

we already got things strait. we don't need retards like you to help us.

Quote: 1.America is not dying economically. Th economy is on the rise. There has been a recession since the Clinton years. 9/11 didn't help either. While China is doing well, America is still doing perfectly fine.

perfectly fine is not how i would describe it. even though it is doing ok and is getting somewhat better still there are enough things we should take of.

Quote: 2.A loss of international respect comes from pathetic nations like France who won't do anything to help other. Chirac only wants to improve his political career.

a loss of international respect comes from having a moron in a White House. France's actions are but a religitimate reaction to the bulls**t coming from Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and Rice. you seem to have a hard time distiguishing between the cause and effect.

Quote: 3.A fully engaged military also demonstrates how we are doing the right thing by ousting Hussein and the Taliban.

again, problems with causal relationships and simple logic. having a fully engaged military does not constitute a proof or even an evidence of us doing the right thing. it just means that we are doing something. however, it has no bearing on the normative dimension of our actions.

Quote: Anyone who thinks America is doomed is a pessimistic idiot who needs to understand the reality of the situation.

and you are optimistic moron. your post is devoid of logic and has no merit whatsoever. learn to think.
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