Political Crossfire Forums

[Demothenes]

I've said before that I believed China to be the next superpower. I now put forth this formal retraction. In part so that noone can claim I contradicted myself, and in part due to the stunning revelations I have encountered on a recent research paper.

In short, having only seen China once, I was impressed by their numbers and their seemingly high standard of living (in the city), but regarding recent events, I must say that China is far from a stable community, let alone one capable of competition on a global scale. A weak economy, a less-than-impressive military (tech and tactics) and foriegn relations that lack any and all real value.

No offense to Eynon, but China's a little ****.

[cap'n queasy]

What recent events?

[Secondary Oak]

Demothenese wrote: No offense to Eynon, but China's a little ****.
**** maybe, but "little"? :)

[Demothenes]

cap'n queasy wrote: What recent events?

I did a research paper on China's potential world power. They have none.

[Nico]

Demothenese wrote: cap'n queasy wrote: What recent events?

I did a research paper on China's potential world power. They have none.

'None" might be an underestimation. The fact that they can dictate to any other group means that they have world power.

[eynon]

Demothenese wrote: I've said before that I believed China to be the next superpower. I now put forth this formal retraction. In part so that noone can claim I contradicted myself, and in part due to the stunning revelations I have encountered on a recent research paper.

In short, having only seen China once, I was impressed by their numbers and their seemingly high standard of living (in the city), but regarding recent events, I must say that China is far from a stable community, let alone one capable of competition on a global scale. A weak economy, a less-than-impressive military (tech and tactics) and foriegn relations that lack any and all real value.

No offense to Eynon, but China's a little ****.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: tell me about it....I pretty much agree with you, except that I would term it a "big" s**t hole. No they have a lot of major issues to work through here before they will become a true global super-player.
Basically I've been trying to tell everyone on the forum this for some time...but seems like most people still view China as the "sleeping dragon"...yeah, more like the "chubby panda"....I think there's a real chance they'll get eclipsed or at least rivalled by India in the next few decades....

[eynon]

Our real rival is Europe, not enemy, but rival...they're the only people who could knock us from the top spot...well them and ourselves.

[Nico]

Hey Eynon, how serious do you think the risk of China attacking Taiwan is?

[eynon]

Anaximander wrote: Hey Eynon, how serious do you think the risk of China attacking Taiwan is?

good question....I believe that no matter how bad I want them to, China will never attack Taiwan, because they know they would lose, very, very badly. Where to begin? Your ex-military right Anaximander? so you understand how hard it is to supply troops in combat. Well consider that even if China could put a large number of troops accross the straits(which they can't) every bullet they shoot, every grain of rice they eat, every once of gasonline their vehicles use, will have to come across the strait, which mean across the US navy(even the Taiwanese navy could do some serious damage).
At the same time any Chinese landing force would meet a large, well armed, highly diciplined Taiwanese army totally devoted to the cause of driving the Chinese back into the sea. Basically the Chinese army would catch hell and not have the ability to keep any invasion force supplied.
Course before they attack Taiwan they need to take Jin-mian Island...around 12 miles off the coast of main-land China and garrisoned by 2 crack Taiwanese infantry divisions. When they tried to take Jin-mian in 1950 the Chinese lost 50,000 men(or so their goverment claims)...the worst part of that attack being that 40,000 of those men were forced surrendered because they ran out of ammo(couldn't get the supplies 12 miles off their coast).
Anyway for 10,000 different reasons China would get their asses kicked...take the US out of that equation and China would then only get their ass kicked for 5,000 reasons.

The goverment in Beijing knows it will never get Taiwan back, so why does it throw such a temper-tantrum when-ever Tai-bei even brings up independence? I believe its not because they are afraid of losing Taiwan...rather they are afraid that if they let one piece go then it will start a domino effect and what we know as China will not exist. Many, many parts of China don't want to be parts of China; Tibet and East-Turkistan would jump at independence as would Hong-Kong. Many Southern Chinese hate Beijing and would likely go their own way if they could. Shang-hai has always seen itself as something different from China as a whole....ect. I've had students tell me they predict that in 50 years China will be 5 different countries.

Beijing does everything it can to create and promote a Chinese national identity because they know it's really not that strong(I'm so sick of hearing about the f***ing 2008 olympics!). If they got their asses handed to them trying to take Taiwan then that would do a lot to destroy that national image and total descredit the nationalist politicians(currently running the counrty) who push it.

As I said before I would love it if China attacked Taiwan, because I know it would be the death of Beijing nationalism and would do a tremendous amont to liberalize China as a whole and decentralize power...putting it back in the hands of the Chinese people who could then decide how best to live their lives. But those evil ****ers in Beijing know this, so they will never, EVER attack Taiwan...no matter how much I want them to.

[Nico]

Nice reply Eynon, I have to say you have given me a perspective on China that is edifying. Yeah I'm ex military but it is a while ago now. I prefer the peace. I think it is harder than war, which makes it a challenge. Diplomacy is boring , but it sure beats the alternative. I have to say that over the years I have seen so many 'enemies' become fiends and 'friends ' become enemies , that I am a little cynical about political expediency. The life of an 18 year old kid is a dreadful thing to play games with IMO. :-|

[eynon]

Anaximander wrote: Nice reply Eynon, I have to say you have given me a perspective on China that is edifying. Yeah I'm ex military but it is a while ago now. I prefer the peace. I think it is harder than war, which makes it a challenge. Diplomacy is boring , but it sure beats the alternative. I have to say that over the years I have seen so many 'enemies' become fiends and 'friends ' become enemies , that I am a little cynical about political expediency. The life of an 18 year old kid is a dreadful thing to play games with IMO. :-|

why thank you :-D yeah chest thumping aside living over here has made me very aware of the tremendous power of American(and the rest of the English speaking world including NZ :wink: ) "soft-power". Basically it's made me not too keen on the whole "pre-emptive war" thing...but it's also made me a fanatic when it comes to defending Liberal Democracy even in other countries. If Taiwan was attacked I'd try to get in that fight as fast as possible...Beijing must not be allowed to f**k up anything else, they've broken enough already.

[Nico]

Eynon81 wrote:
If Taiwan was attacked I'd try to get in that fight as fast as possible...Beijing must not be allowed to f**k up anything else, they've broken enough already.


The way you described things[Taiwan defences etc..], I think I would also be surprised if the Chinese could successfully invade. The posturing of the mainland is still a little intimidating though. Also the incidents where China has built bases on shallow reefs near the Philipines are disturbing. They seem expansionist.

You were far to generous about my counrty's power, but thanks for the vote of confidence :wink: . We're just a bunch of farmers with an egalitarian complex. :lol: George Bush gave our SAS a medal on dec 7 for helping out in Afghanistan but we are still in trouble for not going to Iraq. Ahh well.

[Demothenes]

Real question, at least from my standpoint, is could China recieve any help from other nations against Taiwan? Say, North Korea, Cuba, etc.? I don't really think that this will happen, but there may be an unknown factor (old animosities, resource shortages) that could cause a conflict on Taiwanese soil. Probably unfounded, but it's a possibility.

[eynon]

Demothenese wrote: Real question, at least from my standpoint, is could China recieve any help from other nations against Taiwan? Say, North Korea, Cuba, etc.? I don't really think that this will happen, but there may be an unknown factor (old animosities, resource shortages) that could cause a conflict on Taiwanese soil. Probably unfounded, but it's a possibility.

North Korea? it's totally possible....if China and Taiwan went at it, North Korean may wanna kiss Chinese ass by "helping" and invading the South. Course China's not to keen on North Korea...they have big time economic realtions with the South. The thing is that the Chinese seem pretty sure they couldn't win a war with the US(no Chinese person, including guys I know in their army, I ever talked to about it thinks they could beat us), and the larger that war got the worse their chances get.
A lot of countries don't want a large powerful exspanionist China, here's the short list:
United States
United Kingdom
Australia
New Zealand
Canada
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
India
Thailand
Philipines
Vietnam
Indonesia
Malaysia......are all potential Chinese enemies and if push came to shove it would be in all those countries national intrest to put the "Dragon back in it's Cave"...and if you notice that's a list made up of most of the world's most powerful nations(both militarily and economically). China knows this...they know that if they don't play nice they could get crushed...thing is they've been trying their best to play nice, sucking up to all sorts of counrties, espechally India. But the sucking up as been mostly talk...so we'll see what the future holds, but I think it won't be filled with too much violence in east-asia.

[eynon]

Anaximander wrote: Eynon81 wrote:
If Taiwan was attacked I'd try to get in that fight as fast as possible...Beijing must not be allowed to f**k up anything else, they've broken enough already.


The way you described things[Taiwan defences etc..], I think I would also be surprised if the Chinese could successfully invade. The posturing of the mainland is still a little intimidating though. Also the incidents where China has built bases on shallow reefs near the Philipines are disturbing. They seem expansionist.

You were far to generous about my counrty's power, but thanks for the vote of confidence :wink: . We're just a bunch of farmers with an egalitarian complex. :lol: George Bush gave our SAS a medal on dec 7 for helping out in Afghanistan but we are still in trouble for not going to Iraq. Ahh well.

still don't underestimate any English speaking country's "soft power"...culturally, educationally, and economically you Kiwis wield more then your share of big stick :-D